Italy · Serie A

Bologna vs Sassuolo

Kick-off 17:00 · Sun, Sep 6

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

50% confidence

Bologna 49.7% Draw 24.8% Sassuolo 25.5%

Over 2.5 - 50% BTTS - 54%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

87%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 11.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Bologna: 8 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Bologna 2 wins, 3 draws, Sassuolo 0 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.7%

Exact-score model probability

Bologna

L L D W W D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 7:7 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.17

Sassuolo

W L L L L W

Form 2-0-4 Goals 8:9 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

Bologna 2wins ·3 draws ·Sassuolo 0wins

Bologna 1-0 SassuoloMar 15, 2026

Bologna 1-1 SassuoloDec 28, 2025

Bologna 4-2 SassuoloFeb 3, 2024

Bologna 1-1 SassuoloOct 28, 2023

Bologna 1-1 SassuoloMay 8, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Bologna win49.7%

Draw24.8%

Sassuolo win25.5%

Over 1.5 goals74.8%

Over 2.5 goals50.1%

Over 3.5 goals28.2%

Both teams to score53.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

86.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

86.9%

Under 4.5 Goals

86.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)78.3%

Home or Away (12)75.9%

Draw No Bet - Home71.4%

Home Win54.3%

Both Halves Over 0.553.9%

Goal in Both Halves53.9%

Draw or Away (X2)45.7%

Draw No Bet - Away28.6%

Draw24.0%

Away Win21.7%

Exactly 1 Goal18.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals94.5%

Over 0.5 Goals93.1%

Under 4.5 Goals86.7%

Over 1.5 Goals74.7%

Under 3.5 Goals72.0%

1-3 Goals65.1%

2-4 Goals61.3%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Over 2.5 Goals50.0%

Under 2.5 Goals50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

2-3 Goals46.6%

1-2 Goals43.1%

3-4 Goals36.7%

Over 3.5 Goals28.0%

4+ Goals28.0%

Under 1.5 Goals25.3%

Exactly 2 Goals24.7%

Exactly 3 Goals22.0%

Over 4.5 Goals13.3%

Under 0.5 Goals6.9%

Exactly 0 Goals6.9%

Over 5.5 Goals5.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score81.7%

Away Team to Score62.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)51.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)49.0%

Home Clean Sheet37.6%

Home Win to Nil30.7%

Away Clean Sheet18.3%

Away Win to Nil11.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.581.7%

Away Over 0.562.4%

Home Over 1.550.6%

Away Exactly 037.6%

Away Exactly 136.8%

Home Exactly 131.1%

Home Exactly 226.4%

Away Over 1.525.6%

Home Over 2.524.2%

Home 3+ Goals24.2%

Home Exactly 018.3%

Away Exactly 218.0%

Away Over 2.57.6%

Away 3+ Goals7.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)86.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away86.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)78.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home78.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)70.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away70.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)54.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)45.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away45.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)29.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home29.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw24.5%

Home to win by 124.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)21.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.7%

Home to win by 216.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.1%

Away to win by 114.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)13.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home13.1%

Home to win by 3+13.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.5%

Away to win by 25.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home4.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.0%

Away to win by 3+2.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.539.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.538.5%

Home & Over 2.532.6%

Home & No BTTS30.7%

Home & BTTS23.5%

Home & Under 2.521.6%

Draw & Under 2.518.3%

Draw & BTTS17.2%

Away & Over 2.511.7%

Away & No BTTS11.4%

BTTS & Under 2.511.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.5%

Away & BTTS10.3%

Away & Under 2.510.0%

Draw & Over 2.55.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.570.0%

HT Under 1.566.1%

2nd Half More Goals43.3%

HT Draw41.0%

HT Home Win39.7%

HT Over 1.533.9%

HT/FT Home/Home33.7%

1st Half More Goals31.0%

HT Under 0.530.0%

Equal Goals Each Half25.7%

HT Away Win19.3%

HT Both Teams Score19.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw14.8%

HT/FT Away/Away12.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Away/Home2.7%

HT/FT Home/Away1.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions