England · Championship

Bolton vs Cardiff

Kick-off 12:30 · Sat, Sep 12

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

49% confidence

Bolton 49.0% Draw 20.3% Cardiff 30.7%

Over 2.5 - 83% BTTS - 81%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

81%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

80%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 6.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Bolton: 4 points versus 3 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.9%

Exact-score model probability

Bolton

L L L L D W

Form 1-1-4 Goals 6:12 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2

Cardiff

D L L D L D

Form 0-3-3 Goals 7:11 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Bolton win49.0%

Draw20.3%

Cardiff win30.7%

Over 1.5 goals94.8%

Over 2.5 goals83.2%

Over 3.5 goals66.6%

Both teams to score80.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

91.9%

Home Over 0.5

91.9%

HT Over 0.5

87.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)81.0%

Both Halves Over 0.580.0%

Goal in Both Halves80.0%

Home or Draw (1X)68.5%

Draw No Bet - Home61.3%

Draw or Away (X2)50.2%

Home Win49.6%

Draw No Bet - Away38.7%

Away Win31.4%

Draw18.8%

Exactly 1 Goal4.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.8%

Over 1.5 Goals94.0%

Over 2.5 Goals83.1%

Under 5.5 Goals69.6%

Over 3.5 Goals66.5%

4+ Goals66.5%

Under 4.5 Goals52.4%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Over 4.5 Goals47.6%

2-4 Goals46.4%

3-4 Goals35.5%

Under 3.5 Goals33.5%

1-3 Goals32.3%

Over 5.5 Goals30.4%

2-3 Goals27.5%

Under 2.5 Goals16.9%

Exactly 3 Goals16.6%

1-2 Goals15.7%

Exactly 2 Goals10.9%

Under 1.5 Goals6.0%

Under 0.5 Goals1.2%

Exactly 0 Goals1.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score91.9%

Away Team to Score86.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)79.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)20.3%

Home Clean Sheet13.2%

Home Win to Nil12.2%

Away Clean Sheet8.0%

Away Win to Nil6.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.591.9%

Away Over 0.586.6%

Home Over 1.571.7%

Away Over 1.559.9%

Home Over 2.546.3%

Home 3+ Goals46.3%

Away Over 2.532.8%

Away 3+ Goals32.8%

Away Exactly 227.0%

Away Exactly 126.7%

Home Exactly 225.5%

Home Exactly 120.1%

Away Exactly 013.2%

Home Exactly 08.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)92.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home92.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)92.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away92.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)83.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home83.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)83.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away83.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)68.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away68.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)68.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home68.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)50.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away50.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)49.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)31.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)31.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home31.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.6%

Home to win by 118.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)16.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home16.7%

Home to win by 3+16.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)16.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away16.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.8%

Away to win by 114.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.4%

Home to win by 214.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw9.2%

Away to win by 29.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw9.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)7.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home7.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)7.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away7.4%

Away to win by 3+7.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.574.3%

Home & Over 2.543.6%

Home & BTTS37.5%

Away & Over 2.527.1%

Away & BTTS24.5%

Draw & BTTS17.8%

Draw & Over 2.512.4%

Home & No BTTS12.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.511.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.7%

Away & No BTTS6.9%

Draw & Under 2.56.5%

Home & Under 2.56.0%

BTTS & Under 2.55.4%

Away & Under 2.54.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.1%

HT Over 1.560.7%

2nd Half More Goals48.8%

HT Home Win40.9%

HT Both Teams Score40.6%

HT Under 1.539.3%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT/FT Home/Home32.2%

HT Draw30.1%

HT Away Win29.0%

HT/FT Away/Away19.1%

Equal Goals Each Half18.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.1%

HT Under 0.512.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Away/Home4.5%

HT/FT Home/Away3.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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