England · Championship

Bolton vs Middlesbrough

Kick-off 20:00 · Fri, Oct 23

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

52% confidence

Bolton 29.6% Draw 18.8% Middlesbrough 51.6%

Over 2.5 - 88% BTTS - 84%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

84%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

81%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 6.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Middlesbrough: 7 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.4%

Exact-score model probability

Bolton

D L W W L L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 8:12 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 2

Middlesbrough

D W D D W L

Form 2-3-1 Goals 13:14 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 2.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Bolton win29.6%

Draw18.8%

Middlesbrough win51.6%

Over 1.5 goals96.5%

Over 2.5 goals87.6%

Over 3.5 goals73.5%

Both teams to score84.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

90.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home

90.1%

HT Over 0.5

89.5%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.583.8%

Goal in Both Halves83.8%

Home or Away (12)82.0%

Draw or Away (X2)69.7%

Draw No Bet - Away63.4%

Away Win52.0%

Home or Draw (1X)47.7%

Draw No Bet - Home36.6%

Home Win30.0%

Draw17.7%

Exactly 1 Goal3.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.0%

Over 1.5 Goals95.7%

Over 2.5 Goals87.3%

Over 3.5 Goals73.3%

4+ Goals73.3%

Under 5.5 Goals61.8%

Over 4.5 Goals55.8%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 4.5 Goals44.2%

2-4 Goals39.9%

Over 5.5 Goals38.2%

3-4 Goals31.5%

Under 3.5 Goals26.7%

1-3 Goals25.7%

2-3 Goals22.4%

Exactly 3 Goals14.0%

Under 2.5 Goals12.7%

1-2 Goals11.7%

Exactly 2 Goals8.4%

Under 1.5 Goals4.3%

Under 0.5 Goals1.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score93.8%

Home Team to Score88.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)83.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)16.8%

Away Clean Sheet11.3%

Away Win to Nil10.6%

Home Clean Sheet5.9%

Home Win to Nil5.2%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.593.8%

Home Over 0.588.4%

Away Over 1.577.1%

Home Over 1.563.8%

Away Over 2.553.4%

Away 3+ Goals53.4%

Home Over 2.537.1%

Home 3+ Goals37.1%

Home Exactly 226.8%

Home Exactly 124.6%

Away Exactly 223.6%

Away Exactly 116.7%

Home Exactly 011.3%

Away Exactly 05.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.7%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)92.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away92.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)90.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home90.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)83.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away83.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)80.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home80.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)69.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away69.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)65.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home65.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)52.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)47.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home47.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)34.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away34.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)30.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)19.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away19.4%

Away to win by 3+19.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw18.0%

Away to win by 118.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)16.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home16.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw14.7%

Away to win by 214.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw13.8%

Home to win by 113.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw9.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)9.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away9.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw8.7%

Home to win by 28.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)7.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home7.4%

Home to win by 3+7.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw5.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw4.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away4.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.9%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.579.1%

Away & Over 2.547.5%

Away & BTTS41.4%

Home & Over 2.527.0%

Home & BTTS24.8%

Draw & BTTS17.0%

Draw & Over 2.512.9%

Away & No BTTS10.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.58.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.2%

Home & No BTTS5.2%

Draw & Under 2.54.8%

Away & Under 2.54.6%

BTTS & Under 2.54.1%

Home & Under 2.53.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.589.5%

HT Over 1.565.8%

2nd Half More Goals49.7%

HT Both Teams Score45.0%

HT Away Win43.1%

HT/FT Away/Away34.4%

HT Under 1.534.2%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Home Win28.6%

HT Draw28.3%

HT/FT Home/Home18.3%

Equal Goals Each Half17.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away12.9%

HT Under 0.510.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home8.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Away5.0%

HT/FT Away/Home3.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions