Germany · Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV

Kick-off 17:30 · Sat, Aug 29

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

71% confidence

Borussia Dortmund 70.8% Draw 18.9% Hamburger SV 10.2%

Over 2.5 - 93% BTTS - 72%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

90%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Borussia Dortmund: 9 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.4%

Exact-score model probability

Borussia Dortmund

W W L W L L

Form 3-0-3 Goals 10:6 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1

Hamburger SV

D W W L L L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 8:13 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 2.17

Head to head · last 2

Borussia Dortmund 1wins ·1 draws ·Hamburger SV 0wins

Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Hamburger SVMar 21, 2026

Borussia Dortmund 1-1 Hamburger SVNov 8, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Borussia Dortmund win70.8%

Draw18.9%

Hamburger SV win10.2%

Over 1.5 goals80.5%

Over 2.5 goals92.6%

Over 3.5 goals35.0%

Both teams to score72.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

89.4%

Home or Draw (1X)

88.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

88.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)88.8%

Draw No Bet - Home88.5%

Home or Away (12)87.4%

Both Halves Over 0.583.7%

Goal in Both Halves83.7%

Home Win77.4%

Draw or Away (X2)21.4%

Draw No Bet - Away11.5%

Draw11.4%

Away Win10.0%

Exactly 1 Goal3.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.1%

Over 1.5 Goals94.7%

Over 2.5 Goals86.3%

Over 3.5 Goals72.3%

4+ Goals72.3%

Under 5.5 Goals62.8%

Over 4.5 Goals54.7%

Total Goals Odd49.4%

Total Goals Even49.4%

Under 4.5 Goals45.3%

2-4 Goals40.0%

Over 5.5 Goals37.2%

3-4 Goals31.6%

Under 3.5 Goals27.7%

1-3 Goals25.9%

2-3 Goals22.5%

Exactly 3 Goals14.0%

Under 2.5 Goals13.7%

1-2 Goals11.8%

Exactly 2 Goals8.4%

Under 1.5 Goals5.3%

Under 0.5 Goals1.9%

Exactly 0 Goals0.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.1%

Away Team to Score73.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)71.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)28.2%

Home Clean Sheet25.0%

Home Win to Nil24.4%

Away Clean Sheet2.7%

Away Win to Nil2.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 1.586.5%

Away Over 0.573.8%

Home Over 2.568.9%

Home 3+ Goals68.9%

Away Over 1.539.4%

Away Exactly 134.4%

Away Exactly 025.0%

Away Exactly 223.6%

Home Exactly 217.5%

Away Over 2.515.8%

Away 3+ Goals15.8%

Home Exactly 19.7%

Home Exactly 02.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)92.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)88.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home88.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)84.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away84.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)77.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)72.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away72.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)61.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home61.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)56.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away56.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)42.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home42.8%

Home to win by 3+42.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)37.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away37.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)26.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home26.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)21.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away21.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.3%

Home to win by 218.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.3%

Home to win by 116.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)14.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home14.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw12.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)10.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw7.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)6.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home6.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.2%

Away to win by 16.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.6%

Away to win by 22.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.2%

Away to win by 3+1.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.570.5%

BTTS & Over 2.568.4%

Home & BTTS53.0%

Home & No BTTS24.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.517.9%

Draw & BTTS10.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.59.1%

Away & Over 2.58.5%

Away & BTTS8.0%

Draw & Over 2.57.4%

Home & Under 2.56.9%

Draw & Under 2.54.0%

BTTS & Under 2.53.4%

Away & No BTTS2.0%

Away & Under 2.51.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.589.4%

HT Over 1.565.7%

HT Home Win62.0%

HT/FT Home/Home57.6%

2nd Half More Goals49.6%

HT Both Teams Score37.1%

HT Under 1.534.3%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw24.2%

Equal Goals Each Half18.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.1%

HT Away Win13.8%

HT Under 0.510.6%

HT/FT Away/Away5.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Away/Home4.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Home/Away1.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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