Germany · Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07

Kick-off 14:30 · Sat, Sep 12

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

63% confidence

Borussia Dortmund 63.3% Draw 24.3% SC Paderborn 07 12.5%

Over 2.5 - 78% BTTS - 56%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

78%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

63%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 9.5%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Borussia Dortmund: 15 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.5%

Exact-score model probability

Borussia Dortmund

W W W W W L

Form 5-0-1 Goals 13:7 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.17

SC Paderborn 07

L D W D W D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 6:4 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 0.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Borussia Dortmund win63.3%

Draw24.3%

SC Paderborn 07 win12.5%

Over 1.5 goals69.5%

Over 2.5 goals77.5%

Over 3.5 goals21.7%

Both teams to score55.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

90.9%

Home or Away (12)

88.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

85.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)93.1%

Draw No Bet - Home93.0%

Home or Away (12)88.8%

Home Win82.6%

Both Halves Over 0.575.4%

Goal in Both Halves75.4%

Draw or Away (X2)16.8%

Draw10.5%

Draw No Bet - Away7.0%

Exactly 1 Goal6.8%

Away Win6.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.7%

Over 1.5 Goals90.9%

Under 5.5 Goals77.5%

Over 2.5 Goals77.0%

Under 4.5 Goals61.5%

Over 3.5 Goals58.0%

4+ Goals58.0%

2-4 Goals52.4%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Under 3.5 Goals42.0%

1-3 Goals39.7%

Over 4.5 Goals38.5%

3-4 Goals38.5%

2-3 Goals32.9%

Under 2.5 Goals23.0%

Over 5.5 Goals22.5%

1-2 Goals20.7%

Exactly 3 Goals19.0%

Exactly 2 Goals13.9%

Under 1.5 Goals9.1%

Under 0.5 Goals2.3%

Exactly 0 Goals1.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.5%

Away Team to Score56.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)54.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)45.3%

Home Clean Sheet42.5%

Home Win to Nil40.8%

Away Clean Sheet3.9%

Away Win to Nil2.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.5%

Home Over 1.582.9%

Home Over 2.562.5%

Home 3+ Goals62.5%

Away Over 0.556.9%

Away Exactly 042.5%

Away Exactly 136.1%

Away Over 1.520.8%

Home Exactly 220.5%

Away Exactly 215.3%

Home Exactly 112.6%

Away Over 2.55.5%

Away 3+ Goals5.5%

Home Exactly 03.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)93.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)93.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home93.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)85.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away85.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)82.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)72.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away72.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)65.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home65.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)54.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away54.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)45.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home45.3%

Home to win by 3+45.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)33.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away33.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)27.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home27.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw20.2%

Home to win by 220.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw18.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.1%

Home to win by 117.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)16.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away16.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)14.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home14.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw13.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw7.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)6.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)6.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home6.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw4.5%

Away to win by 14.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.4%

Away to win by 21.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.4%

Away to win by 3+0.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.568.5%

BTTS & Over 2.550.1%

Home & BTTS41.8%

Home & No BTTS40.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.526.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.517.8%

Home & Under 2.514.1%

Draw & BTTS8.9%

Draw & Under 2.56.2%

BTTS & Under 2.54.6%

Draw & Over 2.54.3%

Away & Over 2.54.2%

Away & BTTS4.0%

Away & No BTTS2.2%

Away & Under 2.52.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.584.2%

HT Home Win64.6%

HT/FT Home/Home61.5%

HT Over 1.555.1%

2nd Half More Goals47.7%

HT Under 1.544.9%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw25.9%

HT Both Teams Score24.4%

Equal Goals Each Half20.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home18.1%

HT Under 0.515.8%

HT Away Win9.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home3.6%

HT/FT Away/Away3.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.3%

HT/FT Home/Away0.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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