Germany · Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg

Full time · 2:1

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

71% confidence

Borussia Dortmund 71.3% Draw 16.9% SV Elversberg 11.7%

Over 2.5 - 93% BTTS - 73%

✓ Pick was correct (2:1)

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

88%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

73%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 6.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Borussia Dortmund: 11 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.7%

Exact-score model probability

Borussia Dortmund

W D W W D L

Form 3-2-1 Goals 7:5 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 0.83

SV Elversberg

W L W L D L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 9:11 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Borussia Dortmund win71.3%

Draw16.9%

SV Elversberg win11.7%

Over 1.5 goals87.4%

Over 2.5 goals92.7%

Over 3.5 goals47.6%

Both teams to score72.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

90.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

90.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

90.6%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home93.9%

Home or Draw (1X)90.6%

Both Halves Over 0.588.9%

Goal in Both Halves88.9%

Home or Away (12)88.7%

Home Win83.3%

Draw or Away (X2)12.6%

Draw7.2%

Draw No Bet - Away6.1%

Away Win5.4%

Exactly 1 Goal1.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.7%

Over 1.5 Goals93.9%

Over 2.5 Goals88.9%

Over 3.5 Goals79.2%

4+ Goals79.2%

Over 4.5 Goals65.0%

Under 5.5 Goals51.5%

Over 5.5 Goals48.5%

Total Goals Even48.0%

Total Goals Odd47.9%

Under 4.5 Goals35.0%

2-4 Goals29.0%

3-4 Goals23.9%

Under 3.5 Goals20.8%

1-3 Goals16.5%

2-3 Goals14.8%

Under 2.5 Goals11.1%

Exactly 3 Goals9.8%

1-2 Goals6.8%

Under 1.5 Goals6.1%

Exactly 2 Goals5.0%

Under 0.5 Goals4.3%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

Away Team to Score70.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)69.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)30.5%

Home Clean Sheet25.6%

Home Win to Nil25.3%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 0.570.3%

Away Over 1.536.5%

Away Exactly 133.8%

Away Exactly 025.6%

Away Exactly 222.3%

Away Over 2.514.2%

Away 3+ Goals14.2%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)90.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home90.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)83.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)83.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)72.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away72.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)71.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home71.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)56.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away56.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)55.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home55.8%

Home to win by 3+55.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)40.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away40.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)39.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home39.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)24.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away24.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)23.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home23.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.6%

Home to win by 215.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw15.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)12.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away12.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)12.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home12.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw11.9%

Home to win by 111.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw11.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)5.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw3.5%

Away to win by 13.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.3%

Away to win by 21.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.6%

Away to win by 3+0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.579.0%

BTTS & Over 2.567.8%

Home & BTTS58.0%

Home & No BTTS25.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.521.2%

Draw & BTTS6.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.55.3%

Draw & Over 2.55.2%

Away & Over 2.54.7%

Away & BTTS4.6%

Home & Under 2.54.3%

Draw & Under 2.52.1%

BTTS & Under 2.51.8%

Away & No BTTS0.8%

Away & Under 2.50.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.7%

HT Over 1.573.6%

HT Home Win71.1%

HT/FT Home/Home68.2%

2nd Half More Goals51.0%

HT Both Teams Score38.9%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.526.4%

HT Draw19.1%

Equal Goals Each Half16.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.4%

HT Away Win9.8%

HT Under 0.57.3%

HT/FT Away/Home4.7%

HT/FT Away/Away3.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw2.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.7%

HT/FT Home/Away0.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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