UEFA Champions League

Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal

Kick-off 20:00 · Tue, Sep 8

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

83% confidence

Borussia Dortmund 82.8% Draw 9.8% Villarreal 7.4%

Over 2.5 - 92% BTTS - 75%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

92%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

83%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 6.6%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Borussia Dortmund: 15 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.16 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.6%

Exact-score model probability

Borussia Dortmund

W W W W L W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 14:5 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 0.83

Villarreal

L L D D W L

Form 1-2-3 Goals 11:11 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Borussia Dortmund win82.8%

Draw9.8%

Villarreal win7.4%

Over 1.5 goals97.9%

Over 2.5 goals91.8%

Over 3.5 goals81.0%

Both teams to score75.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Draw No Bet - Home

91.5%

Home or Draw (1X)

89.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

89.6%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home91.5%

Home or Draw (1X)89.6%

Home or Away (12)88.2%

Both Halves Over 0.588.0%

Goal in Both Halves88.0%

Home Win80.7%

Draw or Away (X2)16.5%

Draw8.9%

Draw No Bet - Away8.5%

Away Win7.5%

Exactly 1 Goal2.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.8%

Over 1.5 Goals94.8%

Over 2.5 Goals89.2%

Over 3.5 Goals78.7%

4+ Goals78.7%

Over 4.5 Goals63.8%

Under 5.5 Goals53.1%

Total Goals Even48.6%

Total Goals Odd48.5%

Over 5.5 Goals46.9%

Under 4.5 Goals36.2%

2-4 Goals31.1%

3-4 Goals25.5%

Under 3.5 Goals21.3%

1-3 Goals18.1%

2-3 Goals16.2%

Under 2.5 Goals10.8%

Exactly 3 Goals10.6%

1-2 Goals7.6%

Exactly 2 Goals5.6%

Under 1.5 Goals5.2%

Under 0.5 Goals3.2%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.7%

Away Team to Score74.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)73.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)27.0%

Home Clean Sheet23.0%

Home Win to Nil22.7%

Away Clean Sheet1.5%

Away Win to Nil1.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.7%

Home Over 1.589.4%

Home Over 2.576.3%

Home 3+ Goals76.3%

Away Over 0.574.1%

Away Over 1.541.0%

Away Exactly 133.1%

Away Exactly 223.9%

Away Exactly 023.0%

Away Over 2.517.1%

Away 3+ Goals17.1%

Home Exactly 213.1%

Home Exactly 16.2%

Home Exactly 01.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.1%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)89.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home89.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)87.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)80.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)77.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away77.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)67.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home67.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)63.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away63.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)50.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home50.4%

Home to win by 3+50.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)46.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away46.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)33.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home33.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)30.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away30.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)19.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home19.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.7%

Home to win by 216.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)16.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away16.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw14.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw13.6%

Home to win by 113.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw9.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)9.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home9.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)7.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw4.7%

Away to win by 14.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.9%

Away to win by 21.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.9%

Away to win by 3+0.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.576.1%

BTTS & Over 2.570.9%

Home & BTTS58.0%

Home & No BTTS22.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.518.3%

Draw & BTTS8.6%

Away & Over 2.56.7%

Draw & Over 2.56.5%

Away & BTTS6.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.55.8%

Home & Under 2.54.6%

Draw & Under 2.52.5%

BTTS & Under 2.52.1%

Away & No BTTS1.1%

Away & Under 2.50.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.1%

HT Over 1.572.2%

HT Home Win67.2%

HT/FT Home/Home63.5%

2nd Half More Goals50.7%

HT Both Teams Score40.5%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.527.8%

HT Draw20.9%

Equal Goals Each Half16.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.0%

HT Away Win11.9%

HT Under 0.57.9%

HT/FT Away/Home5.0%

HT/FT Away/Away4.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.3%

HT/FT Home/Away1.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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