Germany · Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen

Kick-off 19:30 · Fri, Oct 9

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

76% confidence

Borussia Dortmund 75.6% Draw 16.2% Werder Bremen 8.2%

Over 2.5 - 90% BTTS - 58%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

90%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

76%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 10.2%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Borussia Dortmund: 18 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.66 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.2%

Exact-score model probability

Borussia Dortmund

W W W W W W

Form 6-0-0 Goals 14:4 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 0.67

Werder Bremen

W D W L L L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 8:11 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 5

Borussia Dortmund 3wins ·2 draws ·Werder Bremen 0wins

Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Werder BremenMay 16, 2026

Borussia Dortmund 3-0 Werder BremenJan 13, 2026

Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Werder BremenJan 25, 2025

Borussia Dortmund 0-0 Werder BremenAug 31, 2024

Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Werder BremenMar 9, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Borussia Dortmund win75.6%

Draw16.2%

Werder Bremen win8.2%

Over 1.5 goals83.9%

Over 2.5 goals90.0%

Over 3.5 goals40.7%

Both teams to score58.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

91.6%

Home or Away (12)

90.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

90.5%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home95.2%

Home or Draw (1X)94.7%

Home or Away (12)90.6%

Home Win86.2%

Both Halves Over 0.577.1%

Goal in Both Halves77.1%

Draw or Away (X2)12.8%

Draw8.4%

Exactly 1 Goal6.0%

Draw No Bet - Away4.8%

Away Win4.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.6%

Over 1.5 Goals91.6%

Over 2.5 Goals78.8%

Under 5.5 Goals75.3%

Over 3.5 Goals60.6%

4+ Goals60.6%

Under 4.5 Goals58.8%

2-4 Goals50.4%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Total Goals Odd49.4%

Over 4.5 Goals41.2%

Under 3.5 Goals39.4%

3-4 Goals37.6%

1-3 Goals37.0%

2-3 Goals31.0%

Over 5.5 Goals24.7%

Under 2.5 Goals21.2%

1-2 Goals18.8%

Exactly 3 Goals18.2%

Exactly 2 Goals12.8%

Under 1.5 Goals8.4%

Under 0.5 Goals2.4%

Exactly 0 Goals1.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.0%

Away Team to Score52.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)50.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)49.3%

Home Clean Sheet46.7%

Home Win to Nil45.3%

Away Clean Sheet3.0%

Away Win to Nil1.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.0%

Home Over 1.585.5%

Home Over 2.567.1%

Home 3+ Goals67.1%

Away Over 0.552.3%

Away Exactly 046.7%

Away Exactly 135.1%

Home Exactly 218.4%

Away Over 1.517.2%

Away Exactly 213.2%

Home Exactly 110.5%

Away Over 2.54.0%

Away 3+ Goals4.0%

Home Exactly 03.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)94.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home94.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)90.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)86.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)80.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away80.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)71.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home71.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)66.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away66.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)51.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home51.8%

Home to win by 3+51.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)47.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away47.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)32.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home32.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)27.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away27.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.3%

Home to win by 219.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw18.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)18.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home18.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.1%

Home to win by 115.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw14.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)12.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away12.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw9.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)8.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home8.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)4.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw3.2%

Away to win by 13.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.9%

Away to win by 20.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.2%

Away to win by 3+0.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.572.6%

BTTS & Over 2.547.0%

Home & No BTTS45.3%

Home & BTTS40.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.531.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.516.5%

Home & Under 2.513.6%

Draw & BTTS7.0%

Draw & Under 2.55.1%

BTTS & Under 2.53.7%

Draw & Over 2.53.3%

Away & Over 2.52.9%

Away & BTTS2.8%

Away & No BTTS1.6%

Away & Under 2.51.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.3%

HT Home Win68.8%

HT/FT Home/Home66.4%

HT Over 1.557.1%

2nd Half More Goals48.1%

HT Under 1.542.9%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw23.7%

HT Both Teams Score22.8%

Equal Goals Each Half19.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.5%

HT Under 0.514.7%

HT Away Win7.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Away/Home3.3%

HT/FT Away/Away2.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.7%

HT/FT Home/Away0.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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