Brazil · Serie A

Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense

Kick-off 00:00 · Tue, Aug 25

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

40% confidence

Botafogo 26.3% Draw 34.2% Atletico Paranaense 39.5%

Over 2.5 - 32% BTTS - 41%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-1 at 15.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Atletico Paranaense: 9 points versus 14 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

15.4%

Exact-score model probability

Botafogo

L D W D W D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 5:4 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 0.67

Atletico Paranaense

D W D W W W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 9:3 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Botafogo win26.3%

Draw34.2%

Atletico Paranaense win39.5%

Over 1.5 goals60.6%

Over 2.5 goals31.8%

Over 3.5 goals13.9%

Both teams to score40.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

90.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

90.6%

Over 0.5 Goals

86.2%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)71.9%

Home or Away (12)69.3%

Draw No Bet - Away59.5%

Home or Draw (1X)58.8%

Away Win41.2%

Draw No Bet - Home40.5%

Both Halves Over 0.539.1%

Goal in Both Halves39.1%

Draw30.7%

Home Win28.1%

Exactly 1 Goal27.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals98.4%

Under 4.5 Goals94.9%

Over 0.5 Goals86.2%

Under 3.5 Goals86.1%

1-3 Goals72.3%

Under 2.5 Goals68.2%

Over 1.5 Goals58.8%

1-2 Goals54.4%

2-4 Goals53.8%

Total Goals Even51.0%

Total Goals Odd49.0%

2-3 Goals44.9%

Under 1.5 Goals41.2%

Over 2.5 Goals31.8%

Exactly 2 Goals27.1%

3-4 Goals26.7%

Exactly 3 Goals17.9%

Over 3.5 Goals13.9%

4+ Goals13.9%

Under 0.5 Goals13.8%

Exactly 0 Goals13.8%

Over 4.5 Goals5.1%

Over 5.5 Goals1.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score67.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)61.1%

Home Team to Score57.9%

Away Clean Sheet42.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)38.9%

Home Clean Sheet32.8%

Away Win to Nil28.3%

Home Win to Nil19.0%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.567.2%

Home Over 0.557.9%

Home Exactly 042.1%

Away Exactly 136.6%

Home Exactly 136.4%

Away Exactly 032.8%

Away Over 1.530.6%

Home Over 1.521.4%

Away Exactly 220.4%

Home Exactly 215.7%

Away Over 2.510.3%

Away 3+ Goals10.3%

Home Over 2.55.7%

Home 3+ Goals5.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)90.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away90.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)82.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home82.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)71.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away71.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)58.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home58.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)41.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)28.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw24.1%

Away to win by 124.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.7%

Home to win by 118.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)17.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away17.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw11.7%

Away to win by 211.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)9.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home9.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw7.0%

Home to win by 27.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)5.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away5.4%

Away to win by 3+5.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.3%

Home to win by 3+2.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.554.9%

Away & No BTTS28.3%

Draw & Under 2.527.1%

BTTS & Over 2.525.6%

Away & Under 2.524.0%

Home & No BTTS19.0%

Away & Over 2.517.2%

Home & Under 2.517.1%

Draw & BTTS16.9%

BTTS & Under 2.513.3%

Away & BTTS12.9%

Home & Over 2.511.0%

Home & BTTS9.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.56.2%

Draw & Over 2.53.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.577.6%

HT Over 0.559.0%

HT Draw49.4%

HT Under 0.541.0%

2nd Half More Goals39.8%

Equal Goals Each Half30.8%

1st Half More Goals29.4%

HT Away Win29.2%

HT/FT Away/Away23.6%

HT Over 1.522.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw21.9%

HT Home Win21.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away16.0%

HT/FT Home/Home15.4%

HT Both Teams Score12.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Home/Away1.6%

HT/FT Away/Home1.2%

Corners (12)

Home Over 4.5 Corners78.5%

Over 8.5 Corners76.8%

Home Most Corners69.2%

Over 9.5 Corners65.9%

Under 11.5 Corners57.9%

Over 10.5 Corners54.0%

Under 10.5 Corners46.0%

Away Over 4.5 Corners45.2%

Over 11.5 Corners42.1%

Under 9.5 Corners34.1%

Under 8.5 Corners23.2%

Away Most Corners20.9%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards77.4%

Under 5.5 Cards77.2%

Under 4.5 Cards61.3%

Over 3.5 Cards58.3%

Under 3.5 Cards41.7%

Over 4.5 Cards38.7%

Over 5.5 Cards22.8%

Under 2.5 Cards22.6%

Over 0.5 Red Cards16.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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