Brazil · Serie A

Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc

Kick-off 22:00 · Sat, Oct 17

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

70% confidence

Botafogo 69.5% Draw 14.5% Chapecoense-sc 16.0%

Over 2.5 - 91% BTTS - 82%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

86%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

82%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 6.2%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Botafogo: 7 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.2%

Exact-score model probability

Botafogo

D D L W D D

Form 1-4-1 Goals 7:8 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.33

Chapecoense-sc

L L L W L W

Form 2-0-4 Goals 6:13 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Botafogo win69.5%

Draw14.5%

Chapecoense-sc win16.0%

Over 1.5 goals97.5%

Over 2.5 goals90.7%

Over 3.5 goals78.8%

Both teams to score82.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

91.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

91.3%

HT Over 0.5

91.3%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.586.7%

Goal in Both Halves86.7%

Home or Away (12)85.3%

Home or Draw (1X)82.6%

Draw No Bet - Home81.0%

Home Win69.0%

Draw or Away (X2)29.8%

Draw No Bet - Away19.0%

Away Win16.2%

Draw13.6%

Exactly 1 Goal2.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.4%

Over 1.5 Goals96.0%

Over 2.5 Goals89.6%

Over 3.5 Goals77.9%

4+ Goals77.9%

Over 4.5 Goals62.1%

Under 5.5 Goals55.1%

Total Goals Odd49.4%

Total Goals Even49.4%

Over 5.5 Goals44.9%

Under 4.5 Goals37.9%

2-4 Goals34.0%

3-4 Goals27.5%

Under 3.5 Goals22.1%

1-3 Goals20.5%

2-3 Goals18.1%

Exactly 3 Goals11.7%

Under 2.5 Goals10.4%

1-2 Goals8.8%

Exactly 2 Goals6.4%

Under 1.5 Goals4.0%

Under 0.5 Goals1.6%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.1%

Away Team to Score83.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)80.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)19.1%

Home Clean Sheet15.6%

Home Win to Nil15.1%

Away Clean Sheet2.8%

Away Win to Nil2.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 1.586.2%

Away Over 0.583.3%

Home Over 2.568.4%

Home 3+ Goals68.4%

Away Over 1.554.5%

Away Exactly 128.8%

Away Over 2.527.9%

Away 3+ Goals27.9%

Away Exactly 226.6%

Home Exactly 217.8%

Away Exactly 015.6%

Home Exactly 19.9%

Home Exactly 02.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)88.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away88.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)82.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home82.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)78.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away78.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)69.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)64.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away64.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)52.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home52.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)46.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away46.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)34.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home34.9%

Home to win by 3+34.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)29.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away29.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)20.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home20.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.2%

Home to win by 217.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.0%

Home to win by 117.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)16.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)10.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home10.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw10.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw8.7%

Away to win by 18.7%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.6%

Away to win by 24.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.0%

Away to win by 3+3.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.578.0%

Home & Over 2.564.7%

Home & BTTS53.9%

Home & No BTTS15.1%

Away & Over 2.514.7%

Away & BTTS13.9%

Draw & BTTS13.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.6%

Draw & Over 2.510.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.56.4%

Home & Under 2.54.4%

Draw & Under 2.53.3%

BTTS & Under 2.52.9%

Away & No BTTS2.3%

Away & Under 2.51.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.3%

HT Over 1.570.1%

HT Home Win55.9%

2nd Half More Goals50.4%

HT/FT Home/Home49.7%

HT Both Teams Score45.2%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.529.9%

HT Draw24.8%

HT Away Win19.2%

Equal Goals Each Half17.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.8%

HT/FT Away/Away9.5%

HT Under 0.58.7%

HT/FT Away/Home5.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Away2.1%

Corners (12)

Over 8.5 Corners79.6%

Home Over 4.5 Corners73.7%

Over 9.5 Corners69.5%

Away Over 4.5 Corners58.8%

Over 10.5 Corners57.9%

Home Most Corners55.8%

Under 11.5 Corners54.0%

Over 11.5 Corners46.0%

Under 10.5 Corners42.1%

Away Most Corners32.7%

Under 9.5 Corners30.5%

Under 8.5 Corners20.4%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards82.6%

Under 5.5 Cards70.3%

Over 3.5 Cards65.8%

Under 4.5 Cards53.2%

Over 4.5 Cards46.8%

Under 3.5 Cards34.2%

Over 5.5 Cards29.7%

Over 0.5 Red Cards18.0%

Under 2.5 Cards17.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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