Brazil · Serie A

Botafogo vs Gremio

Kick-off 23:30 · Wed, Sep 16

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

57% confidence

Botafogo 57.1% Draw 27.2% Gremio 15.7%

Over 2.5 - 44% BTTS - 45%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

84%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 14.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Gremio: 3 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

14.7%

Exact-score model probability

Botafogo

D D L L L D

Form 0-3-3 Goals 4:9 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1.5

Gremio

L L W L L W

Form 2-0-4 Goals 6:9 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Botafogo win57.1%

Draw27.2%

Gremio win15.7%

Over 1.5 goals71.1%

Over 2.5 goals43.7%

Over 3.5 goals22.6%

Both teams to score44.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 0.5 Goals

91.1%

Under 4.5 Goals

90.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

85.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)82.8%

Draw No Bet - Home77.3%

Home or Away (12)75.7%

Home Win58.6%

Both Halves Over 0.548.9%

Goal in Both Halves48.9%

Draw or Away (X2)41.4%

Draw24.3%

Draw No Bet - Away22.7%

Exactly 1 Goal21.5%

Away Win17.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals96.3%

Over 0.5 Goals91.1%

Under 4.5 Goals90.1%

Under 3.5 Goals77.4%

Over 1.5 Goals69.7%

1-3 Goals68.5%

2-4 Goals59.8%

Under 2.5 Goals56.4%

Total Goals Even50.4%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

1-2 Goals47.5%

2-3 Goals47.0%

Over 2.5 Goals43.6%

3-4 Goals33.8%

Under 1.5 Goals30.3%

Exactly 2 Goals26.0%

Over 3.5 Goals22.6%

4+ Goals22.6%

Exactly 3 Goals21.0%

Over 4.5 Goals9.9%

Under 0.5 Goals8.9%

Exactly 0 Goals8.9%

Over 5.5 Goals3.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score80.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)56.6%

Away Team to Score53.6%

Home Clean Sheet46.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)43.4%

Home Win to Nil37.5%

Away Clean Sheet19.1%

Away Win to Nil10.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.580.9%

Away Over 0.553.6%

Home Over 1.549.3%

Away Exactly 046.4%

Away Exactly 135.6%

Home Exactly 131.6%

Home Exactly 226.2%

Home Over 2.523.1%

Home 3+ Goals23.1%

Home Exactly 019.1%

Away Over 1.518.0%

Away Exactly 213.7%

Away Over 2.54.3%

Away 3+ Goals4.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)94.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away94.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)85.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away85.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)82.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home82.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)67.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away67.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)58.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)41.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away41.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)32.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home32.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw26.2%

Home to win by 126.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.2%

Home to win by 218.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)17.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)14.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home14.2%

Home to win by 3+14.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.1%

Away to win by 112.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw9.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)5.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home5.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.9%

Away to win by 23.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.1%

Away to win by 3+1.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.545.1%

Home & No BTTS37.5%

BTTS & Over 2.532.1%

Home & Over 2.531.8%

Home & Under 2.526.8%

Home & BTTS21.0%

Draw & Under 2.520.1%

Draw & BTTS15.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.5%

BTTS & Under 2.511.3%

Away & No BTTS10.2%

Away & Under 2.59.4%

Away & Over 2.57.7%

Away & BTTS6.9%

Draw & Over 2.54.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.570.2%

HT Over 0.566.4%

HT Draw42.8%

2nd Half More Goals42.2%

HT Home Win41.6%

HT/FT Home/Home36.5%

HT Under 0.533.6%

1st Half More Goals30.5%

HT Over 1.529.8%

Equal Goals Each Half27.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home19.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw16.1%

HT Away Win15.6%

HT Both Teams Score15.4%

HT/FT Away/Away9.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Away/Home2.3%

HT/FT Home/Away0.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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