Brazil · Serie A

Botafogo vs Palmeiras

Kick-off 22:30 · Sun, Sep 6

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

59% confidence

Botafogo 21.6% Draw 19.5% Palmeiras 58.9%

Over 2.5 - 80% BTTS - 75%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

81%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Palmeiras: 5 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Botafogo

L L L D W D

Form 1-2-3 Goals 4:8 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1.33

Palmeiras

D W L D W L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 12:7 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Botafogo win21.6%

Draw19.5%

Palmeiras win58.9%

Over 1.5 goals93.3%

Over 2.5 goals79.6%

Over 3.5 goals61.3%

Both teams to score75.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

89.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

89.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

88.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)81.9%

Draw or Away (X2)77.5%

Both Halves Over 0.577.0%

Goal in Both Halves77.0%

Draw No Bet - Away72.7%

Away Win59.6%

Home or Draw (1X)40.3%

Draw No Bet - Home27.3%

Home Win22.3%

Draw17.9%

Exactly 1 Goal6.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.4%

Over 1.5 Goals92.3%

Over 2.5 Goals79.5%

Under 5.5 Goals74.7%

Over 3.5 Goals61.2%

4+ Goals61.2%

Under 4.5 Goals58.2%

2-4 Goals50.5%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Over 4.5 Goals41.8%

Under 3.5 Goals38.8%

3-4 Goals37.6%

1-3 Goals37.2%

2-3 Goals31.1%

Over 5.5 Goals25.3%

Under 2.5 Goals20.5%

1-2 Goals18.9%

Exactly 3 Goals18.3%

Exactly 2 Goals12.9%

Under 1.5 Goals7.7%

Under 0.5 Goals1.6%

Exactly 0 Goals1.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score92.7%

Home Team to Score79.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)74.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)25.8%

Away Clean Sheet20.0%

Away Win to Nil18.5%

Home Clean Sheet7.1%

Home Win to Nil5.7%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.592.7%

Home Over 0.579.9%

Away Over 1.573.9%

Away Over 2.549.0%

Away 3+ Goals49.0%

Home Over 1.547.7%

Home Exactly 132.1%

Home Exactly 225.9%

Away Exactly 224.9%

Home Over 2.521.9%

Home 3+ Goals21.9%

Home Exactly 020.0%

Away Exactly 118.8%

Away Exactly 07.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.6%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away96.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)89.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away89.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)88.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home88.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)77.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away77.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)77.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home77.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)60.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home60.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)59.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)40.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home40.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)39.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away39.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)22.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away22.6%

Away to win by 3+22.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)22.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.9%

Away to win by 119.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw17.0%

Away to win by 217.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.2%

Home to win by 112.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw11.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)11.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away11.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)10.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home10.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw6.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw6.3%

Home to win by 26.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)4.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away4.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home3.8%

Home to win by 3+3.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw3.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.568.1%

Away & Over 2.550.8%

Away & BTTS41.0%

Away & No BTTS18.5%

Home & Over 2.518.2%

Home & BTTS16.6%

Draw & BTTS16.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.514.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.4%

Draw & Over 2.510.4%

Away & Under 2.58.7%

Draw & Under 2.57.5%

BTTS & Under 2.56.1%

Home & No BTTS5.7%

Home & Under 2.54.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.2%

HT Over 1.557.0%

2nd Half More Goals48.1%

HT Away Win47.0%

HT Under 1.543.0%

HT/FT Away/Away39.8%

HT Both Teams Score35.8%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw30.5%

HT Home Win22.5%

Equal Goals Each Half19.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away15.4%

HT Under 0.514.8%

HT/FT Home/Home13.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home7.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Away4.6%

HT/FT Away/Home2.3%

Corners (12)

Over 8.5 Corners77.9%

Over 9.5 Corners67.3%

Away Over 4.5 Corners66.8%

Home Over 4.5 Corners63.6%

Under 11.5 Corners56.4%

Over 10.5 Corners55.5%

Away Most Corners46.4%

Under 10.5 Corners44.5%

Over 11.5 Corners43.6%

Home Most Corners41.5%

Under 9.5 Corners32.7%

Under 8.5 Corners22.1%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards88.2%

Over 3.5 Cards74.6%

Under 5.5 Cards60.1%

Over 4.5 Cards57.4%

Under 4.5 Cards42.6%

Over 5.5 Cards39.9%

Under 3.5 Cards25.4%

Over 0.5 Red Cards20.3%

Under 2.5 Cards11.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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