Brazil · Serie A

Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama

Kick-off 00:30 · Thu, Oct 8

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

51% confidence

Botafogo 50.7% Draw 27.2% Vasco DA Gama 22.1%

Over 2.5 - 51% BTTS - 54%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

86%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

78%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Vasco DA Gama: 5 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.5%

Exact-score model probability

Botafogo

L W D D L L

Form 1-2-3 Goals 6:11 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.83

Vasco DA Gama

W W L W L L

Form 3-0-3 Goals 11:10 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Botafogo win50.7%

Draw27.2%

Vasco DA Gama win22.1%

Over 1.5 goals77.0%

Over 2.5 goals51.2%

Over 3.5 goals29.1%

Both teams to score54.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

91.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

91.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

87.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)76.4%

Home or Away (12)75.8%

Draw No Bet - Home68.9%

Both Halves Over 0.554.8%

Goal in Both Halves54.8%

Home Win52.2%

Draw or Away (X2)47.8%

Draw No Bet - Away31.1%

Draw24.2%

Away Win23.6%

Exactly 1 Goal17.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals94.1%

Over 0.5 Goals93.4%

Under 4.5 Goals86.0%

Over 1.5 Goals75.5%

Under 3.5 Goals70.9%

1-3 Goals64.3%

2-4 Goals61.5%

Over 2.5 Goals51.2%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals48.8%

2-3 Goals46.4%

1-2 Goals42.2%

3-4 Goals37.1%

Over 3.5 Goals29.1%

4+ Goals29.1%

Under 1.5 Goals24.5%

Exactly 2 Goals24.3%

Exactly 3 Goals22.1%

Over 4.5 Goals14.0%

Under 0.5 Goals6.6%

Exactly 0 Goals6.6%

Over 5.5 Goals5.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score81.3%

Away Team to Score64.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)52.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)47.3%

Home Clean Sheet35.2%

Home Win to Nil28.6%

Away Clean Sheet18.7%

Away Win to Nil12.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.581.3%

Away Over 0.564.8%

Home Over 1.550.0%

Away Exactly 136.8%

Away Exactly 035.2%

Home Exactly 131.3%

Away Over 1.528.0%

Home Exactly 226.3%

Home Over 2.523.7%

Home 3+ Goals23.7%

Away Exactly 219.2%

Home Exactly 018.7%

Away Over 2.58.9%

Away 3+ Goals8.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)87.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away87.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)76.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home76.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)71.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away71.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)52.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)47.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away47.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)28.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home28.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw24.0%

Home to win by 124.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)23.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.0%

Home to win by 216.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.9%

Away to win by 114.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)12.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home12.3%

Home to win by 3+12.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)8.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away8.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.2%

Away to win by 26.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)4.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home4.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.5%

Away to win by 3+2.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.541.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.537.3%

Home & Over 2.531.9%

Home & No BTTS28.6%

Home & BTTS23.6%

Home & Under 2.520.3%

Draw & Under 2.518.1%

Draw & BTTS17.7%

Away & Over 2.513.1%

Away & No BTTS12.1%

Away & BTTS11.5%

BTTS & Under 2.511.5%

Away & Under 2.510.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.0%

Draw & Over 2.56.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.570.6%

HT Under 1.565.3%

2nd Half More Goals43.5%

HT Draw40.8%

HT Home Win38.6%

HT Over 1.534.7%

HT/FT Home/Home32.3%

1st Half More Goals31.1%

HT Under 0.529.4%

Equal Goals Each Half25.4%

HT Away Win20.7%

HT Both Teams Score19.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw14.6%

HT/FT Away/Away13.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Away/Home2.7%

HT/FT Home/Away1.5%

Corners (12)

Away Over 4.5 Corners86.8%

Over 8.5 Corners85.6%

Over 9.5 Corners77.2%

Away Most Corners74.9%

Over 10.5 Corners67.0%

Over 11.5 Corners55.7%

Home Over 4.5 Corners49.9%

Under 11.5 Corners44.3%

Under 10.5 Corners33.0%

Under 9.5 Corners22.8%

Home Most Corners16.7%

Under 8.5 Corners14.4%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards78.5%

Under 5.5 Cards75.9%

Over 3.5 Cards59.8%

Under 4.5 Cards59.6%

Over 4.5 Cards40.4%

Under 3.5 Cards40.2%

Over 5.5 Cards24.1%

Under 2.5 Cards21.5%

Over 0.5 Red Cards16.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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