England · League Cup

Bournemouth vs Aston Villa

Kick-off 20:45 · Wed, Oct 28

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

41% confidence

Bournemouth 40.5% Draw 22.2% Aston Villa 37.3%

Over 2.5 - 78% BTTS - 77%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

78%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

77%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 8.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Aston Villa: 10 points versus 16 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.5%

Exact-score model probability

Bournemouth

W W L L D W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 12:8 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.33

Aston Villa

W W W W D W

Form 5-1-0 Goals 17:6 Scored/game 2.83 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 5

Bournemouth 0wins ·2 draws ·Aston Villa 3wins

Bournemouth 1-1 Aston VillaFeb 7, 2026

Bournemouth 0-4 Aston VillaNov 9, 2025

Bournemouth 0-1 Aston VillaMay 10, 2025

Bournemouth 1-1 Aston VillaOct 26, 2024

Bournemouth 1-3 Aston VillaApr 21, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Bournemouth win40.5%

Draw22.2%

Aston Villa win37.3%

Over 1.5 goals92.6%

Over 2.5 goals77.9%

Over 3.5 goals58.9%

Both teams to score77.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

88.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

87.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

87.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)78.6%

Both Halves Over 0.570.1%

Goal in Both Halves70.1%

Draw or Away (X2)67.7%

Draw No Bet - Away58.9%

Home or Draw (1X)53.7%

Away Win46.3%

Draw No Bet - Home41.1%

Home Win32.3%

Draw21.4%

Exactly 1 Goal9.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.4%

Over 1.5 Goals88.1%

Under 5.5 Goals83.5%

Over 2.5 Goals70.9%

Under 4.5 Goals69.4%

2-4 Goals57.4%

Under 3.5 Goals50.1%

Total Goals Odd50.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Over 3.5 Goals49.9%

4+ Goals49.9%

1-3 Goals47.5%

3-4 Goals40.3%

2-3 Goals38.2%

Over 4.5 Goals30.6%

Under 2.5 Goals29.1%

1-2 Goals26.5%

Exactly 3 Goals21.0%

Exactly 2 Goals17.2%

Over 5.5 Goals16.5%

Under 1.5 Goals11.9%

Under 0.5 Goals2.6%

Exactly 0 Goals2.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score86.6%

Home Team to Score80.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)70.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)29.9%

Away Clean Sheet19.0%

Away Win to Nil16.5%

Home Clean Sheet13.4%

Home Win to Nil10.8%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.586.6%

Home Over 0.580.9%

Away Over 1.559.6%

Home Over 1.549.3%

Away Over 2.532.6%

Away 3+ Goals32.6%

Home Exactly 131.6%

Away Exactly 227.1%

Away Exactly 126.9%

Home Exactly 226.2%

Home Over 2.523.2%

Home 3+ Goals23.2%

Home Exactly 019.0%

Away Exactly 013.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)93.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away93.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)87.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home87.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)84.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away84.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)73.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home73.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)67.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away67.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)53.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home53.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)46.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)32.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)26.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away26.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw20.0%

Away to win by 120.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.5%

Home to win by 116.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)15.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home15.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw13.9%

Away to win by 213.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)12.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away12.4%

Away to win by 3+12.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw9.4%

Home to win by 29.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw7.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)6.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home6.3%

Home to win by 3+6.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw4.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.561.6%

Away & Over 2.536.0%

Away & BTTS29.8%

Home & Over 2.524.5%

Home & BTTS21.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.520.6%

Draw & BTTS18.8%

Away & No BTTS16.5%

Draw & Under 2.511.1%

Home & No BTTS10.8%

Draw & Over 2.510.3%

Away & Under 2.510.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.3%

BTTS & Under 2.58.5%

Home & Under 2.57.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.580.8%

HT Under 1.550.9%

HT Over 1.549.1%

2nd Half More Goals46.6%

HT Away Win37.2%

HT Draw34.5%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Both Teams Score31.3%

HT/FT Away/Away29.0%

HT Home Win28.3%

Equal Goals Each Half21.4%

HT/FT Home/Home19.3%

HT Under 0.519.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away13.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home10.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Away3.6%

HT/FT Away/Home2.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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