England · Premier League

Bournemouth vs Brentford

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Sep 12

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

44% confidence

Bournemouth 44.0% Draw 27.0% Brentford 29.0%

Over 2.5 - 87% BTTS - 77%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

87%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

77%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

73%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 7.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Brentford: 7 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.5%

Exact-score model probability

Bournemouth

W D D L D D

Form 1-4-1 Goals 10:7 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.17

Brentford

D D W W D D

Form 2-4-0 Goals 14:6 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 5

Bournemouth 0wins ·1 draws ·Brentford 4wins

Bournemouth 0-0 BrentfordMar 3, 2026

Bournemouth 1-4 BrentfordDec 27, 2025

Bournemouth 1-2 BrentfordMar 15, 2025

Bournemouth 2-3 BrentfordNov 9, 2024

Bournemouth 1-2 BrentfordMay 11, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Bournemouth win44.0%

Draw27.0%

Brentford win29.0%

Over 1.5 goals79.4%

Over 2.5 goals86.8%

Over 3.5 goals32.5%

Both teams to score77.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

90.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

90.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

87.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)81.3%

Both Halves Over 0.578.2%

Goal in Both Halves78.2%

Home or Draw (1X)73.5%

Draw No Bet - Home67.6%

Home Win55.0%

Draw or Away (X2)44.9%

Draw No Bet - Away32.4%

Away Win26.4%

Draw18.5%

Exactly 1 Goal5.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.6%

Over 1.5 Goals93.0%

Over 2.5 Goals80.9%

Under 5.5 Goals72.7%

Over 3.5 Goals63.3%

4+ Goals63.3%

Under 4.5 Goals55.9%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

2-4 Goals48.9%

Over 4.5 Goals44.1%

3-4 Goals36.8%

Under 3.5 Goals36.7%

1-3 Goals35.3%

2-3 Goals29.7%

Over 5.5 Goals27.3%

Under 2.5 Goals19.1%

Exactly 3 Goals17.6%

1-2 Goals17.6%

Exactly 2 Goals12.1%

Under 1.5 Goals7.0%

Under 0.5 Goals1.4%

Exactly 0 Goals1.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score92.3%

Away Team to Score83.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)76.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)23.2%

Home Clean Sheet16.7%

Home Win to Nil15.4%

Away Clean Sheet7.6%

Away Win to Nil6.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.592.3%

Away Over 0.583.1%

Home Over 1.572.7%

Away Over 1.553.3%

Home Over 2.547.5%

Home 3+ Goals47.5%

Away Exactly 129.9%

Away Exactly 226.7%

Away Over 2.526.6%

Away 3+ Goals26.6%

Home Exactly 225.2%

Home Exactly 119.6%

Away Exactly 016.7%

Home Exactly 07.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)90.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away90.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)87.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home87.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)80.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away80.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)73.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home73.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)64.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away64.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)55.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)44.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away44.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)35.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home35.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)26.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)19.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home19.7%

Home to win by 3+19.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.4%

Home to win by 119.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.8%

Home to win by 215.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.5%

Away to win by 113.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)12.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away12.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)9.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home9.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.6%

Away to win by 27.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)5.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away5.3%

Away to win by 3+5.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.571.0%

Home & Over 2.547.5%

Home & BTTS39.5%

Away & Over 2.522.1%

Away & BTTS20.0%

Draw & BTTS17.3%

Home & No BTTS15.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.513.1%

Draw & Over 2.511.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.0%

Home & Under 2.57.5%

Draw & Under 2.57.1%

Away & No BTTS6.3%

BTTS & Under 2.55.9%

Away & Under 2.54.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.0%

HT Over 1.558.4%

2nd Half More Goals48.4%

HT Home Win44.1%

HT Under 1.541.6%

HT Both Teams Score38.0%

HT/FT Home/Home36.2%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw30.5%

HT Away Win25.4%

Equal Goals Each Half19.4%

HT/FT Away/Away15.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.3%

HT Under 0.514.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home4.6%

HT/FT Home/Away2.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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