England · Premier League

Bournemouth vs Everton

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Aug 29

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

48% confidence

Bournemouth 47.9% Draw 28.4% Everton 23.7%

Over 2.5 - 88% BTTS - 84%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

84%

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

76%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 7.6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Bournemouth: 9 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.6%

Exact-score model probability

Bournemouth

L D D W W D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 9:6 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1

Everton

W W L L D D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 12:9 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

Bournemouth 4wins ·0 draws ·Everton 1wins

Bournemouth 2-1 EvertonFeb 10, 2026

Bournemouth 0-1 EvertonDec 2, 2025

Bournemouth 1-0 EvertonJan 4, 2025

Bournemouth 3-2 EvertonAug 31, 2024

Bournemouth 2-1 EvertonMar 30, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Bournemouth win47.9%

Draw28.4%

Everton win23.7%

Over 1.5 goals71.8%

Over 2.5 goals88.1%

Over 3.5 goals23.6%

Both teams to score83.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

90.8%

Home Over 0.5

90.8%

HT Over 0.5

85.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.5%

Both Halves Over 0.576.8%

Goal in Both Halves76.8%

Home or Draw (1X)70.0%

Draw No Bet - Home62.8%

Home Win50.6%

Draw or Away (X2)49.3%

Draw No Bet - Away37.2%

Away Win29.9%

Draw19.4%

Exactly 1 Goal6.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.5%

Over 1.5 Goals92.3%

Over 2.5 Goals79.3%

Under 5.5 Goals74.9%

Over 3.5 Goals61.0%

4+ Goals61.0%

Under 4.5 Goals58.4%

2-4 Goals50.7%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 4.5 Goals41.6%

Under 3.5 Goals39.0%

3-4 Goals37.8%

1-3 Goals37.5%

2-3 Goals31.3%

Over 5.5 Goals25.1%

Under 2.5 Goals20.7%

1-2 Goals19.1%

Exactly 3 Goals18.3%

Exactly 2 Goals13.0%

Under 1.5 Goals7.7%

Under 0.5 Goals1.5%

Exactly 0 Goals1.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score90.8%

Away Team to Score84.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)76.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)23.7%

Home Clean Sheet15.9%

Home Win to Nil14.4%

Away Clean Sheet9.1%

Away Win to Nil7.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.590.8%

Away Over 0.584.0%

Home Over 1.569.0%

Away Over 1.554.8%

Home Over 2.542.8%

Home 3+ Goals42.8%

Away Exactly 129.2%

Away Over 2.527.9%

Away 3+ Goals27.9%

Away Exactly 226.9%

Home Exactly 226.1%

Home Exactly 121.8%

Away Exactly 015.9%

Home Exactly 09.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)92.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away92.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)84.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home84.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)83.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away83.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)70.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home70.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)68.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away68.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)50.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)49.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away49.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)31.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home31.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)29.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.3%

Home to win by 119.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)16.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home16.4%

Home to win by 3+16.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)15.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away15.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.8%

Home to win by 214.8%

Away to win by 114.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw9.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.7%

Away to win by 28.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)7.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home7.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)6.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away6.3%

Away to win by 3+6.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.570.0%

Home & Over 2.542.9%

Home & BTTS36.1%

Away & Over 2.524.8%

Away & BTTS22.2%

Draw & BTTS18.0%

Home & No BTTS14.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.514.2%

Draw & Over 2.511.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.4%

Draw & Under 2.57.8%

Away & No BTTS7.7%

Home & Under 2.57.6%

BTTS & Under 2.56.4%

Away & Under 2.55.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.1%

HT Over 1.556.8%

2nd Half More Goals48.1%

HT Under 1.543.2%

HT Home Win41.0%

HT Both Teams Score37.1%

HT/FT Home/Home32.7%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw31.4%

HT Away Win27.6%

Equal Goals Each Half19.7%

HT/FT Away/Away18.0%

HT Under 0.514.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Away/Home4.3%

HT/FT Home/Away2.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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