England · Premier League

Bournemouth vs Leeds

Kick-off 16:00 · Sat, Oct 31

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

46% confidence

Bournemouth 45.9% Draw 28.7% Leeds 25.3%

Over 2.5 - 79% BTTS - 72%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

79%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

75%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 7.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Bournemouth: 10 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.4%

Exact-score model probability

Bournemouth

W W L L D W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 12:8 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.33

Leeds

D D L D W L

Form 1-3-2 Goals 9:10 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 4

Bournemouth 1wins ·2 draws ·Leeds 1wins

Bournemouth 2-2 LeedsApr 22, 2026

Bournemouth 2-2 LeedsSep 27, 2025

Bournemouth 4-1 LeedsApr 30, 2023

Bournemouth 3-4 LeedsNov 5, 2022

📈 Probability Breakdown

Bournemouth win45.9%

Draw28.7%

Leeds win25.3%

Over 1.5 goals72.7%

Over 2.5 goals79.3%

Over 3.5 goals24.4%

Both teams to score72.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

89.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

89.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

87.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)82.4%

Both Halves Over 0.579.5%

Goal in Both Halves79.5%

Home or Draw (1X)77.3%

Draw No Bet - Home72.8%

Home Win60.0%

Draw or Away (X2)39.8%

Draw No Bet - Away27.2%

Away Win22.4%

Draw17.3%

Exactly 1 Goal5.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.6%

Over 1.5 Goals93.6%

Over 2.5 Goals82.4%

Under 5.5 Goals70.6%

Over 3.5 Goals65.5%

4+ Goals65.5%

Under 4.5 Goals53.5%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

2-4 Goals47.2%

Over 4.5 Goals46.5%

3-4 Goals35.9%

Under 3.5 Goals34.5%

1-3 Goals33.2%

Over 5.5 Goals29.4%

2-3 Goals28.2%

Under 2.5 Goals17.6%

Exactly 3 Goals16.9%

1-2 Goals16.3%

Exactly 2 Goals11.3%

Under 1.5 Goals6.4%

Under 0.5 Goals1.4%

Exactly 0 Goals1.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score93.6%

Away Team to Score81.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)76.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)23.3%

Home Clean Sheet18.0%

Home Win to Nil16.9%

Away Clean Sheet6.2%

Away Win to Nil5.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.593.6%

Away Over 0.581.8%

Home Over 1.576.4%

Home Over 2.552.4%

Home 3+ Goals52.4%

Away Over 1.551.0%

Away Exactly 130.8%

Away Exactly 226.4%

Away Over 2.524.6%

Away 3+ Goals24.6%

Home Exactly 224.0%

Away Exactly 018.0%

Home Exactly 117.2%

Home Exactly 06.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)94.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away94.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)89.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home89.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)87.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away87.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)77.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home77.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)76.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away76.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)60.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)59.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away59.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)40.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home40.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)39.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away39.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)23.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home23.8%

Home to win by 3+23.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)22.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.4%

Home to win by 119.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.9%

Home to win by 216.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)12.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home12.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.9%

Away to win by 111.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)10.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away10.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.4%

Away to win by 26.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)5.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home5.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.1%

Away to win by 3+4.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.571.4%

Home & Over 2.552.6%

Home & BTTS43.1%

Away & Over 2.518.9%

Away & BTTS17.3%

Home & No BTTS16.9%

Draw & BTTS16.2%

No BTTS & Under 2.512.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.0%

Draw & Over 2.510.9%

Home & Under 2.57.4%

Draw & Under 2.56.4%

BTTS & Under 2.55.3%

Away & No BTTS5.1%

Away & Under 2.53.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.8%

HT Over 1.560.0%

2nd Half More Goals48.6%

HT Home Win47.7%

HT/FT Home/Home40.4%

HT Under 1.540.0%

HT Both Teams Score38.4%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw29.4%

HT Away Win22.9%

Equal Goals Each Half19.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.0%

HT Under 0.513.2%

HT/FT Away/Away13.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.9%

HT/FT Away/Home4.8%

HT/FT Home/Away2.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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