England · Premier League

Bournemouth vs Liverpool

Kick-off 14:00 · Sun, Sep 20

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

38% confidence

Bournemouth 35.9% Draw 26.6% Liverpool 37.5%

Over 2.5 - 95% BTTS - 85%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

85%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

73%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-2 at 5.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Liverpool: 7 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.9%

Exact-score model probability

Bournemouth

D W D D L D

Form 1-4-1 Goals 11:8 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.33

Liverpool

D W W D D D

Form 2-4-0 Goals 9:6 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 5

Bournemouth 1wins ·0 draws ·Liverpool 4wins

Bournemouth 3-2 LiverpoolJan 24, 2026

Bournemouth 2-4 LiverpoolAug 15, 2025

Bournemouth 0-2 LiverpoolFeb 1, 2025

Bournemouth 0-3 LiverpoolSep 21, 2024

Bournemouth 0-4 LiverpoolJan 21, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Bournemouth win35.9%

Draw26.6%

Liverpool win37.5%

Over 1.5 goals82.4%

Over 2.5 goals95.3%

Over 3.5 goals36.8%

Both teams to score84.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

91.9%

Over 2.5 Goals

91.0%

Away Team to Score

89.5%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.587.7%

Goal in Both Halves87.7%

Home or Away (12)83.2%

Home or Draw (1X)72.8%

Draw No Bet - Home68.2%

Home Win56.8%

Draw or Away (X2)42.5%

Draw No Bet - Away31.8%

Away Win26.5%

Draw16.0%

Exactly 1 Goal2.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.9%

Over 1.5 Goals96.8%

Over 2.5 Goals91.0%

Over 3.5 Goals80.1%

4+ Goals80.1%

Over 4.5 Goals64.9%

Under 5.5 Goals52.1%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Over 5.5 Goals47.9%

Under 4.5 Goals35.1%

2-4 Goals31.9%

3-4 Goals26.1%

Under 3.5 Goals19.9%

1-3 Goals18.8%

2-3 Goals16.7%

Exactly 3 Goals10.9%

Under 2.5 Goals9.0%

1-2 Goals7.9%

Exactly 2 Goals5.8%

Under 1.5 Goals3.2%

Under 0.5 Goals1.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.5%

Away Team to Score89.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)86.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)13.9%

Home Clean Sheet9.8%

Home Win to Nil9.4%

Away Clean Sheet3.8%

Away Win to Nil3.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.5%

Away Over 0.589.5%

Home Over 1.583.1%

Away Over 1.566.8%

Home Over 2.562.9%

Home 3+ Goals62.9%

Away Over 2.540.5%

Away 3+ Goals40.5%

Away Exactly 226.3%

Away Exactly 122.7%

Home Exactly 220.3%

Home Exactly 112.4%

Away Exactly 09.8%

Home Exactly 03.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)93.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away93.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)92.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home92.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)86.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away86.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)85.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home85.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)75.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away75.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)72.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home72.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)59.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away59.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)56.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)42.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away42.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)39.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home39.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)26.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)24.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home24.3%

Home to win by 3+24.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.3%

Home to win by 117.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.2%

Home to win by 215.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)14.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away14.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)13.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home13.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.2%

Away to win by 112.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.6%

Away to win by 27.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw7.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)6.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away6.6%

Away to win by 3+6.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)6.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home6.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.583.2%

Home & Over 2.553.5%

Home & BTTS47.3%

Away & Over 2.524.6%

Away & BTTS23.1%

Draw & BTTS15.7%

Draw & Over 2.512.8%

Home & No BTTS9.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.55.5%

Away & No BTTS3.4%

Home & Under 2.53.2%

Draw & Under 2.53.2%

BTTS & Under 2.52.8%

Away & Under 2.51.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.9%

HT Over 1.571.6%

2nd Half More Goals50.7%

HT Both Teams Score49.9%

HT Home Win47.1%

HT/FT Home/Home38.8%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.528.4%

HT Away Win26.8%

HT Draw26.1%

Equal Goals Each Half16.9%

HT/FT Away/Away16.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.0%

HT Under 0.58.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.0%

HT/FT Away/Home5.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Away3.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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