UEFA Europa League

Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz

Kick-off 20:00 · Thu, Oct 15

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

48% confidence

Bournemouth 26.6% Draw 25.8% Sturm Graz 47.6%

Over 2.5 - 60% BTTS - 62%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

83%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

74%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

62%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 10.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.5%

Exact-score model probability

Bournemouth

L L D W D D

Form 1-3-2 Goals 10:11 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.83

Sturm Graz

L L W W

Form 2-0-2 Goals 6:3 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.75

📈 Probability Breakdown

Bournemouth win26.6%

Draw25.8%

Sturm Graz win47.6%

Over 1.5 goals83.0%

Over 2.5 goals60.1%

Over 3.5 goals37.8%

Both teams to score62.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

90.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

88.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

88.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)76.9%

Draw or Away (X2)72.0%

Draw No Bet - Away63.6%

Both Halves Over 0.561.7%

Goal in Both Halves61.7%

Home or Draw (1X)51.0%

Away Win48.9%

Draw No Bet - Home36.4%

Home Win28.0%

Draw23.1%

Exactly 1 Goal13.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.5%

Under 5.5 Goals90.5%

Over 1.5 Goals81.7%

Under 4.5 Goals79.6%

Under 3.5 Goals62.2%

2-4 Goals61.3%

Over 2.5 Goals60.1%

1-3 Goals57.8%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals43.9%

Under 2.5 Goals39.9%

3-4 Goals39.7%

Over 3.5 Goals37.8%

4+ Goals37.8%

1-2 Goals35.4%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Exactly 2 Goals21.6%

Over 4.5 Goals20.4%

Under 1.5 Goals18.3%

Over 5.5 Goals9.5%

Under 0.5 Goals4.5%

Exactly 0 Goals4.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score83.5%

Home Team to Score73.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)61.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)39.0%

Away Clean Sheet27.0%

Away Win to Nil22.5%

Home Clean Sheet16.5%

Home Win to Nil12.1%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.583.5%

Home Over 0.573.0%

Away Over 1.553.7%

Home Over 1.537.7%

Home Exactly 135.3%

Away Exactly 129.8%

Home Exactly 027.0%

Away Over 2.526.9%

Away 3+ Goals26.9%

Away Exactly 226.8%

Home Exactly 223.2%

Away Exactly 016.5%

Home Over 2.514.5%

Home 3+ Goals14.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.7%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away95.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)88.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away88.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)87.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home87.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)73.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home73.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)72.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away72.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)51.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home51.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)48.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)28.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)26.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away26.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw22.0%

Away to win by 122.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.0%

Home to win by 116.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw14.9%

Away to win by 214.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)12.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away12.0%

Away to win by 3+12.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)11.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home11.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw7.9%

Home to win by 27.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw7.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home4.1%

Home to win by 3+4.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.9%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.550.4%

Away & Over 2.533.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.529.4%

Away & BTTS26.4%

Away & No BTTS22.5%

Draw & BTTS18.6%

Home & Over 2.518.3%

Home & BTTS15.9%

Away & Under 2.515.2%

Draw & Under 2.515.0%

Home & No BTTS12.1%

BTTS & Under 2.510.5%

Home & Under 2.59.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.7%

Draw & Over 2.58.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.575.3%

HT Under 1.559.2%

2nd Half More Goals45.0%

HT Over 1.540.8%

HT Draw37.9%

HT Away Win37.6%

1st Half More Goals31.5%

HT/FT Away/Away30.4%

HT Under 0.524.7%

HT Both Teams Score24.7%

HT Home Win24.4%

Equal Goals Each Half23.5%

HT/FT Home/Home16.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away15.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home9.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Away3.1%

HT/FT Away/Home2.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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