England · Premier League

Bournemouth vs Sunderland

Kick-off 14:00 · Sun, Oct 18

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

51% confidence

Bournemouth 50.5% Draw 28.1% Sunderland 21.4%

Over 2.5 - 90% BTTS - 83%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

83%

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

79%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 6.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Sunderland: 6 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.8%

Exact-score model probability

Bournemouth

L L D W D D

Form 1-3-2 Goals 10:11 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.83

Sunderland

L L L W D W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 6:10 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 2

Bournemouth 0wins ·1 draws ·Sunderland 1wins

Bournemouth 1-1 SunderlandFeb 28, 2026

Bournemouth 2-3 SunderlandNov 29, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Bournemouth win50.5%

Draw28.1%

Sunderland win21.4%

Over 1.5 goals72.8%

Over 2.5 goals89.8%

Over 3.5 goals24.4%

Both teams to score82.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

89.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

89.9%

HT Over 0.5

87.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)81.8%

Both Halves Over 0.581.1%

Goal in Both Halves81.1%

Home or Draw (1X)72.5%

Draw No Bet - Home66.7%

Home Win54.5%

Draw or Away (X2)45.2%

Draw No Bet - Away33.3%

Away Win27.3%

Draw18.0%

Exactly 1 Goal4.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.8%

Over 1.5 Goals94.5%

Over 2.5 Goals84.3%

Over 3.5 Goals68.4%

4+ Goals68.4%

Under 5.5 Goals67.5%

Under 4.5 Goals50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Over 4.5 Goals49.8%

2-4 Goals44.6%

3-4 Goals34.4%

Over 5.5 Goals32.5%

Under 3.5 Goals31.6%

1-3 Goals30.4%

2-3 Goals26.1%

Exactly 3 Goals15.9%

Under 2.5 Goals15.7%

1-2 Goals14.6%

Exactly 2 Goals10.2%

Under 1.5 Goals5.5%

Under 0.5 Goals1.2%

Exactly 0 Goals0.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score93.2%

Away Team to Score85.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)79.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)20.1%

Home Clean Sheet14.2%

Home Win to Nil13.3%

Away Clean Sheet6.5%

Away Win to Nil5.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.593.2%

Away Over 0.585.5%

Home Over 1.575.4%

Away Over 1.557.8%

Home Over 2.551.1%

Home 3+ Goals51.1%

Away Over 2.530.8%

Away 3+ Goals30.8%

Away Exactly 127.7%

Away Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 224.3%

Home Exactly 117.8%

Away Exactly 014.2%

Home Exactly 06.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.1%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)89.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away89.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)85.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home85.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)79.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away79.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)72.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home72.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)64.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away64.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)54.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)45.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away45.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)35.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home35.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)27.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)20.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home20.3%

Home to win by 3+20.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.8%

Home to win by 118.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.5%

Home to win by 215.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)13.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away13.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.4%

Away to win by 113.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)9.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home9.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.9%

Away to win by 27.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)6.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away6.0%

Away to win by 3+6.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.575.0%

Home & Over 2.548.5%

Home & BTTS41.2%

Away & Over 2.523.7%

Away & BTTS21.7%

Draw & BTTS17.0%

Home & No BTTS13.3%

Draw & Over 2.512.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.510.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.3%

Home & Under 2.56.0%

Draw & Under 2.55.9%

Away & No BTTS5.6%

BTTS & Under 2.55.0%

Away & Under 2.53.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.8%

HT Over 1.562.1%

2nd Half More Goals49.0%

HT Home Win44.3%

HT Both Teams Score41.3%

HT Under 1.537.9%

HT/FT Home/Home36.1%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw29.3%

HT Away Win26.4%

Equal Goals Each Half18.6%

HT/FT Away/Away16.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.8%

HT Under 0.512.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home4.8%

HT/FT Home/Away3.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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