England · Premier League

Brentford vs Chelsea

Kick-off 20:00 · Fri, Sep 18

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

44% confidence

Brentford 43.9% Draw 25.7% Chelsea 30.3%

Over 2.5 - 94% BTTS - 83%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

83%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Chelsea: 10 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 5.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.1%

Exact-score model probability

Brentford

D D D W W D

Form 2-4-0 Goals 14:6 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1

Chelsea

D W L W W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 18:12 Scored/game 3 Conceded/game 2

Head to head · last 5

Brentford 0wins ·3 draws ·Chelsea 2wins

Brentford 0-2 ChelseaJan 17, 2026

Brentford 2-2 ChelseaSep 13, 2025

Brentford 0-0 ChelseaApr 6, 2025

Brentford 1-2 ChelseaDec 15, 2024

Brentford 2-2 ChelseaMar 2, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Brentford win43.9%

Draw25.7%

Chelsea win30.3%

Over 1.5 goals83.9%

Over 2.5 goals94.0%

Over 3.5 goals39.3%

Both teams to score82.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

91.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

91.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

91.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)84.5%

Both Halves Over 0.582.5%

Goal in Both Halves82.5%

Home or Draw (1X)82.4%

Draw No Bet - Home79.8%

Home Win67.5%

Draw or Away (X2)32.0%

Draw No Bet - Away20.2%

Away Win17.0%

Draw14.9%

Exactly 1 Goal3.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.6%

Over 1.5 Goals94.8%

Over 2.5 Goals85.6%

Over 3.5 Goals70.6%

4+ Goals70.6%

Under 5.5 Goals65.0%

Over 4.5 Goals52.5%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Under 4.5 Goals47.5%

2-4 Goals42.3%

Over 5.5 Goals35.0%

3-4 Goals33.0%

Under 3.5 Goals29.4%

1-3 Goals28.0%

2-3 Goals24.2%

Exactly 3 Goals14.9%

Under 2.5 Goals14.4%

1-2 Goals13.1%

Exactly 2 Goals9.3%

Under 1.5 Goals5.2%

Under 0.5 Goals1.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.3%

Away Team to Score80.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)77.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)23.0%

Home Clean Sheet19.1%

Home Win to Nil18.3%

Away Clean Sheet4.1%

Away Win to Nil3.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.3%

Home Over 1.582.2%

Away Over 0.580.3%

Home Over 2.561.3%

Home 3+ Goals61.3%

Away Over 1.548.8%

Away Exactly 131.5%

Away Exactly 226.0%

Away Over 2.522.8%

Away 3+ Goals22.8%

Home Exactly 220.9%

Away Exactly 019.1%

Home Exactly 113.1%

Home Exactly 04.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)91.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away91.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)82.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home82.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)82.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away82.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)68.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away68.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)67.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)50.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away50.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)49.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home49.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)32.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away32.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)31.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home31.3%

Home to win by 3+31.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.3%

Home to win by 118.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.8%

Home to win by 217.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)17.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home17.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)17.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw13.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw9.5%

Away to win by 19.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw9.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)8.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home8.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw5.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.7%

Away to win by 24.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.8%

Away to win by 3+2.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.572.8%

Home & Over 2.560.9%

Home & BTTS49.1%

Home & No BTTS18.3%

Away & Over 2.514.7%

Draw & BTTS14.1%

Away & BTTS13.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.7%

Draw & Over 2.510.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.59.7%

Home & Under 2.56.5%

Draw & Under 2.55.0%

BTTS & Under 2.54.2%

Away & No BTTS3.3%

Away & Under 2.52.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.7%

HT Over 1.564.0%

HT Home Win53.6%

2nd Half More Goals49.3%

HT/FT Home/Home47.4%

HT Both Teams Score39.9%

HT Under 1.536.0%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw27.0%

HT Away Win19.3%

Equal Goals Each Half18.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.5%

HT Under 0.511.3%

HT/FT Away/Away9.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home5.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Home/Away2.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions