England · Premier League

Brentford vs Sunderland

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Sep 5

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

51% confidence

Brentford 50.9% Draw 28.5% Sunderland 20.6%

Over 2.5 - 91% BTTS - 79%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

79%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

79%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Sunderland: 9 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.7%

Exact-score model probability

Brentford

D W W D D L

Form 2-3-1 Goals 13:8 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.33

Sunderland

W L W W D D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 8:5 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 2

Brentford 1wins ·0 draws ·Sunderland 1wins

Brentford 3-0 SunderlandJan 7, 2026

Brentford 1-2 SunderlandAug 30, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Brentford win50.9%

Draw28.5%

Sunderland win20.6%

Over 1.5 goals69.4%

Over 2.5 goals90.6%

Over 3.5 goals21.3%

Both teams to score79.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

90.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

90.0%

HT Over 0.5

87.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)85.7%

Home or Away (12)85.3%

Draw No Bet - Home83.8%

Both Halves Over 0.580.2%

Goal in Both Halves80.2%

Home Win71.5%

Draw or Away (X2)27.9%

Draw No Bet - Away16.2%

Draw14.2%

Away Win13.8%

Exactly 1 Goal4.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.4%

Over 1.5 Goals93.7%

Over 2.5 Goals83.0%

Under 5.5 Goals69.5%

Over 3.5 Goals66.5%

4+ Goals66.5%

Under 4.5 Goals52.3%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Over 4.5 Goals47.7%

2-4 Goals46.0%

3-4 Goals35.2%

Under 3.5 Goals33.5%

1-3 Goals31.9%

Over 5.5 Goals30.5%

2-3 Goals27.2%

Under 2.5 Goals17.0%

Exactly 3 Goals16.4%

1-2 Goals15.5%

Exactly 2 Goals10.8%

Under 1.5 Goals6.3%

Under 0.5 Goals1.6%

Exactly 0 Goals1.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.2%

Away Team to Score75.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)72.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)28.0%

Home Clean Sheet24.3%

Home Win to Nil23.2%

Away Clean Sheet4.2%

Away Win to Nil3.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.2%

Home Over 1.581.9%

Away Over 0.575.2%

Home Over 2.560.8%

Home 3+ Goals60.8%

Away Over 1.541.0%

Away Exactly 134.2%

Away Exactly 024.3%

Away Exactly 224.1%

Home Exactly 221.1%

Away Over 2.516.8%

Away 3+ Goals16.8%

Home Exactly 113.3%

Home Exactly 04.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)95.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)90.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away90.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)85.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home85.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)80.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away80.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)71.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)65.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away65.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)53.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home53.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)46.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away46.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)34.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home34.4%

Home to win by 3+34.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)27.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away27.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)19.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home19.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.7%

Home to win by 218.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.5%

Home to win by 118.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)13.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw9.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)9.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home9.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw8.2%

Away to win by 18.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw5.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.7%

Away to win by 23.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.8%

Away to win by 3+1.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.567.4%

Home & Over 2.563.1%

Home & BTTS48.3%

Home & No BTTS23.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.515.5%

Draw & BTTS13.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.511.9%

Away & Over 2.511.3%

Away & BTTS10.6%

Draw & Over 2.58.5%

Home & Under 2.58.4%

Draw & Under 2.55.6%

BTTS & Under 2.54.6%

Away & No BTTS3.2%

Away & Under 2.52.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.3%

HT Over 1.561.0%

HT Home Win56.3%

HT/FT Home/Home50.8%

2nd Half More Goals48.8%

HT Under 1.539.0%

HT Both Teams Score35.7%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw27.2%

Equal Goals Each Half18.9%

HT Away Win16.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.4%

HT Under 0.512.7%

HT/FT Away/Away7.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.3%

HT/FT Away/Home4.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Home/Away1.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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