England · Premier League

Brighton vs Arsenal

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Sep 19

📊 Our Prediction

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

50% confidence

Brighton 21.3% Draw 28.6% Arsenal 50.1%

Over 2.5 - 32% BTTS - 31%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

79%

No Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

69%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-1 at 20.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Arsenal: 8 points versus 18 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

20.1%

Exact-score model probability

Brighton

W D L W D L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 13:8 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.33

Arsenal

W W W W W W

Form 6-0-0 Goals 11:2 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 0.33

Head to head · last 5

Brighton 0wins ·2 draws ·Arsenal 3wins

Brighton 0-1 ArsenalMar 4, 2026

Brighton 1-2 ArsenalDec 27, 2025

Brighton 1-1 ArsenalJan 4, 2025

Brighton 1-1 ArsenalAug 31, 2024

Brighton 0-3 ArsenalApr 6, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Brighton win21.3%

Draw28.6%

Arsenal win50.1%

Over 1.5 goals72.2%

Over 2.5 goals31.7%

Over 3.5 goals23.7%

Both teams to score31.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Draw or Away (X2)

88.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)

88.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away

88.5%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)88.5%

Draw No Bet - Away84.7%

Home or Away (12)75.1%

Away Win63.6%

Both Halves Over 0.540.6%

Goal in Both Halves40.6%

Home or Draw (1X)36.4%

Exactly 1 Goal26.5%

Draw24.9%

Draw No Bet - Home15.3%

Home Win11.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals98.2%

Under 4.5 Goals94.3%

Over 0.5 Goals87.0%

Under 3.5 Goals84.9%

1-3 Goals72.0%

Under 2.5 Goals66.5%

Over 1.5 Goals60.5%

2-4 Goals54.9%

1-2 Goals53.5%

Total Goals Even50.8%

Total Goals Odd49.2%

2-3 Goals45.5%

Under 1.5 Goals39.5%

Over 2.5 Goals33.5%

3-4 Goals27.8%

Exactly 2 Goals27.1%

Exactly 3 Goals18.4%

Over 3.5 Goals15.1%

4+ Goals15.1%

Under 0.5 Goals13.0%

Exactly 0 Goals13.0%

Over 4.5 Goals5.7%

Over 5.5 Goals1.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score78.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)69.4%

Away Clean Sheet61.1%

Away Win to Nil48.2%

Home Team to Score38.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)30.6%

Home Clean Sheet21.2%

Home Win to Nil8.2%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.578.8%

Home Exactly 061.1%

Away Over 1.545.9%

Home Over 0.538.9%

Away Exactly 132.9%

Home Exactly 130.1%

Away Exactly 225.5%

Away Exactly 021.2%

Away Over 2.520.4%

Away 3+ Goals20.4%

Home Over 1.58.8%

Home Exactly 27.4%

Home Over 2.51.4%

Home 3+ Goals1.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +3.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away100.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away100.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away97.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)94.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home94.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)88.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away88.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)85.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home85.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)65.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home65.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)63.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)36.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home36.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)34.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away34.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw28.8%

Away to win by 128.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw20.0%

Away to win by 220.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)14.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away14.8%

Away to win by 3+14.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)11.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw9.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw9.1%

Home to win by 19.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)5.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away5.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home2.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw2.0%

Home to win by 22.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.4%

Home to win by 3+0.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.556.6%

Away & No BTTS48.2%

Away & Under 2.535.7%

Away & Over 2.527.9%

Draw & Under 2.522.9%

BTTS & Over 2.520.7%

Away & BTTS15.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.8%

Draw & BTTS11.9%

BTTS & Under 2.59.9%

Home & No BTTS8.2%

Home & Under 2.57.9%

Home & Over 2.53.6%

Home & BTTS3.3%

Draw & Over 2.52.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.576.5%

HT Over 0.560.1%

HT Draw46.3%

HT Away Win43.1%

2nd Half More Goals40.2%

HT Under 0.539.9%

HT/FT Away/Away39.6%

Equal Goals Each Half30.2%

1st Half More Goals29.6%

HT Over 1.523.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away22.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw18.7%

HT Home Win10.6%

HT Both Teams Score10.0%

HT/FT Home/Home5.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home5.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Home/Away1.7%

HT/FT Away/Home0.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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