England · Premier League

Brighton vs Aston Villa

Kick-off 14:00 · Sun, Aug 23

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

43% confidence

Brighton 43.4% Draw 27.6% Aston Villa 29.0%

Over 2.5 - 74% BTTS - 73%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

77%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

73%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 7.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Aston Villa: 7 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.84 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.9%

Exact-score model probability

Brighton

D L L W L W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 7:7 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.17

Aston Villa

W W W D W L

Form 4-1-1 Goals 16:7 Scored/game 2.67 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

Brighton 1wins ·1 draws ·Aston Villa 3wins

Brighton 0-1 Aston VillaFeb 11, 2026

Brighton 3-4 Aston VillaDec 3, 2025

Brighton 0-3 Aston VillaApr 2, 2025

Brighton 2-2 Aston VillaDec 30, 2024

Brighton 1-0 Aston VillaMay 5, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Brighton win43.4%

Draw27.6%

Aston Villa win29.0%

Over 1.5 goals77.4%

Over 2.5 goals74.0%

Over 3.5 goals29.8%

Both teams to score72.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

91.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

91.7%

Over 1.5 Goals

89.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)78.9%

Both Halves Over 0.572.4%

Goal in Both Halves72.4%

Draw or Away (X2)63.5%

Home or Draw (1X)57.6%

Draw No Bet - Away53.7%

Draw No Bet - Home46.3%

Away Win42.4%

Home Win36.5%

Draw21.1%

Exactly 1 Goal8.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.8%

Over 1.5 Goals89.6%

Under 5.5 Goals80.9%

Over 2.5 Goals73.8%

Under 4.5 Goals65.9%

2-4 Goals55.5%

Over 3.5 Goals53.6%

4+ Goals53.6%

Total Goals Odd50.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Under 3.5 Goals46.4%

1-3 Goals44.2%

3-4 Goals39.7%

2-3 Goals36.0%

Over 4.5 Goals34.1%

Under 2.5 Goals26.2%

1-2 Goals24.0%

Exactly 3 Goals20.2%

Over 5.5 Goals19.1%

Exactly 2 Goals15.8%

Under 1.5 Goals10.4%

Under 0.5 Goals2.2%

Exactly 0 Goals2.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score86.4%

Home Team to Score84.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)72.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)27.2%

Away Clean Sheet15.7%

Away Win to Nil13.6%

Home Clean Sheet13.5%

Home Win to Nil11.4%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.586.4%

Home Over 0.584.2%

Away Over 1.559.3%

Home Over 1.555.1%

Away Over 2.532.3%

Away 3+ Goals32.3%

Home Exactly 129.1%

Home Over 2.528.2%

Home 3+ Goals28.2%

Away Exactly 127.1%

Away Exactly 227.1%

Home Exactly 226.9%

Home Exactly 015.7%

Away Exactly 013.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)91.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away91.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)89.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home89.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)80.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away80.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)76.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home76.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)63.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away63.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)57.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home57.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)42.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)36.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)23.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away23.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)19.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home19.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw18.8%

Away to win by 118.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.4%

Home to win by 117.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw12.6%

Away to win by 212.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)10.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away10.9%

Away to win by 3+10.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw10.8%

Home to win by 210.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)8.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home8.3%

Home to win by 3+8.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw5.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.564.9%

Away & Over 2.533.9%

Home & Over 2.528.9%

Away & BTTS28.8%

Home & BTTS25.1%

Draw & BTTS19.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.518.2%

Away & No BTTS13.6%

Home & No BTTS11.4%

Draw & Over 2.511.1%

Draw & Under 2.510.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.9%

Away & Under 2.58.5%

BTTS & Under 2.57.9%

Home & Under 2.57.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.582.3%

HT Over 1.551.7%

HT Under 1.548.3%

2nd Half More Goals47.1%

HT Away Win35.1%

HT Draw33.6%

HT Both Teams Score33.5%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT Home Win31.3%

HT/FT Away/Away26.3%

HT/FT Home/Home22.2%

Equal Goals Each Half20.8%

HT Under 0.517.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away12.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Away3.5%

HT/FT Away/Home3.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions