England · Premier League

Brighton vs Brentford

Full time · 2:0

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

54% confidence

Brighton 53.6% Draw 24.4% Brentford 22.0%

Over 2.5 - 89% BTTS - 62%

✓ Pick was correct (2:0)

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

78%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

62%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-0 at 8.3%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Brighton: 15 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.3%

Exact-score model probability

Brighton

W L W W W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 16:2 Scored/game 2.67 Conceded/game 0.33

Brentford

W D L D W D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 11:7 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

Brighton 2wins ·2 draws ·Brentford 1wins

Brighton 2-0 BrentfordFeb 21, 2026

Brighton 2-1 BrentfordNov 22, 2025

Brighton 2-4 BrentfordApr 19, 2025

Brighton 0-0 BrentfordDec 27, 2024

Brighton 0-0 BrentfordApr 3, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Brighton win53.6%

Draw24.4%

Brentford win22.0%

Over 1.5 goals80.9%

Over 2.5 goals88.9%

Over 3.5 goals35.2%

Both teams to score61.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

91.7%

Home or Draw (1X)

91.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

91.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)91.5%

Draw No Bet - Home91.0%

Home or Away (12)87.8%

Home Win80.0%

Both Halves Over 0.576.6%

Goal in Both Halves76.6%

Draw or Away (X2)19.4%

Draw11.6%

Draw No Bet - Away9.0%

Away Win7.9%

Exactly 1 Goal6.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.9%

Over 1.5 Goals91.7%

Over 2.5 Goals78.5%

Under 5.5 Goals75.8%

Over 3.5 Goals60.0%

4+ Goals60.0%

Under 4.5 Goals59.4%

2-4 Goals51.1%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Over 4.5 Goals40.6%

Under 3.5 Goals40.0%

1-3 Goals37.9%

3-4 Goals37.9%

2-3 Goals31.6%

Over 5.5 Goals24.2%

Under 2.5 Goals21.5%

1-2 Goals19.4%

Exactly 3 Goals18.5%

Exactly 2 Goals13.2%

Under 1.5 Goals8.3%

Under 0.5 Goals2.1%

Exactly 0 Goals1.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.4%

Away Team to Score62.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)59.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)40.2%

Home Clean Sheet37.2%

Home Win to Nil35.7%

Away Clean Sheet4.0%

Away Win to Nil2.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.4%

Home Over 1.582.6%

Away Over 0.562.2%

Home Over 2.561.9%

Home 3+ Goals61.9%

Away Exactly 037.2%

Away Exactly 136.6%

Away Over 1.525.7%

Home Exactly 220.7%

Away Exactly 218.0%

Home Exactly 112.8%

Away Over 2.57.7%

Away 3+ Goals7.7%

Home Exactly 04.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)93.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)91.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home91.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)86.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away86.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)80.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)74.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away74.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)62.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home62.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)57.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away57.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)42.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home42.4%

Home to win by 3+42.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)37.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away37.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)25.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home25.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.9%

Home to win by 219.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)19.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away19.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.7%

Home to win by 117.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)12.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home12.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw12.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)7.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw7.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)5.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home5.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.4%

Away to win by 15.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.9%

Away to win by 21.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.6%

Away to win by 3+0.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.567.4%

BTTS & Over 2.555.0%

Home & BTTS44.3%

Home & No BTTS35.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.523.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.516.2%

Home & Under 2.512.5%

Draw & BTTS10.1%

Draw & Under 2.56.2%

Away & Over 2.55.7%

Draw & Over 2.55.4%

Away & BTTS5.4%

BTTS & Under 2.54.7%

Away & No BTTS2.5%

Away & Under 2.52.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.0%

HT Home Win62.5%

HT/FT Home/Home58.8%

HT Over 1.556.5%

2nd Half More Goals48.0%

HT Under 1.543.5%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Both Teams Score27.4%

HT Draw26.4%

Equal Goals Each Half19.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.8%

HT Under 0.515.0%

HT Away Win11.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.8%

HT/FT Away/Away4.3%

HT/FT Away/Home4.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.8%

HT/FT Home/Away0.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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