England · Premier League

Brighton vs Crystal Palace

Kick-off 14:00 · Sun, Oct 18

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

60% confidence

Brighton 60.1% Draw 23.4% Crystal Palace 16.5%

Over 2.5 - 87% BTTS - 68%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

87%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

84%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

68%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 8.3%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Brighton: 13 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 5.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.3%

Exact-score model probability

Brighton

W W W D L W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 18:5 Scored/game 3 Conceded/game 0.83

Crystal Palace

W D L W W L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 12:10 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 5

Brighton 1wins ·1 draws ·Crystal Palace 3wins

Brighton 0-1 Crystal PalaceFeb 8, 2026

Brighton 0-0 Crystal PalaceNov 9, 2025

Brighton 1-2 Crystal PalaceApr 5, 2025

Brighton 1-3 Crystal PalaceDec 15, 2024

Brighton 4-1 Crystal PalaceFeb 3, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Brighton win60.1%

Draw23.4%

Crystal Palace win16.5%

Over 1.5 goals80.6%

Over 2.5 goals87.3%

Over 3.5 goals34.4%

Both teams to score68.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

91.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

91.7%

Over 1.5 Goals

91.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)86.3%

Home or Away (12)84.6%

Draw No Bet - Home84.1%

Both Halves Over 0.575.6%

Goal in Both Halves75.6%

Home Win71.2%

Draw or Away (X2)28.5%

Draw No Bet - Away15.9%

Draw15.1%

Away Win13.4%

Exactly 1 Goal6.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.1%

Over 1.5 Goals91.4%

Over 2.5 Goals77.6%

Under 5.5 Goals76.8%

Under 4.5 Goals60.8%

Over 3.5 Goals58.7%

4+ Goals58.7%

2-4 Goals52.2%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 3.5 Goals41.3%

1-3 Goals39.3%

Over 4.5 Goals39.2%

3-4 Goals38.4%

2-3 Goals32.7%

Over 5.5 Goals23.2%

Under 2.5 Goals22.4%

1-2 Goals20.4%

Exactly 3 Goals18.9%

Exactly 2 Goals13.8%

Under 1.5 Goals8.6%

Under 0.5 Goals1.9%

Exactly 0 Goals1.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.2%

Away Team to Score70.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)66.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)33.3%

Home Clean Sheet29.1%

Home Win to Nil27.5%

Away Clean Sheet5.5%

Away Win to Nil3.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.2%

Home Over 1.578.1%

Away Over 0.570.6%

Home Over 2.554.9%

Home 3+ Goals54.9%

Away Exactly 135.8%

Away Over 1.534.7%

Away Exactly 029.1%

Home Exactly 223.2%

Away Exactly 222.1%

Home Exactly 116.0%

Away Over 2.512.7%

Away 3+ Goals12.7%

Home Exactly 05.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)91.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away91.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)86.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home86.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)82.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away82.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)71.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)67.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away67.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)51.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home51.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)48.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away48.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)32.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home32.1%

Home to win by 3+32.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)28.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away28.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.7%

Home to win by 119.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.4%

Home to win by 219.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)17.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home17.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)13.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw9.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw8.4%

Away to win by 18.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)7.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home7.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.5%

Away to win by 23.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.5%

Away to win by 3+1.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.560.9%

Home & Over 2.559.7%

Home & BTTS43.7%

Home & No BTTS27.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.516.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.516.3%

Draw & BTTS13.4%

Home & Under 2.511.5%

Away & Over 2.510.2%

Away & BTTS9.5%

Draw & Over 2.57.7%

Draw & Under 2.57.4%

BTTS & Under 2.55.8%

Away & No BTTS3.9%

Away & Under 2.53.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.584.4%

HT Over 1.555.4%

HT Home Win55.1%

HT/FT Home/Home49.8%

2nd Half More Goals47.8%

HT Under 1.544.6%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Both Teams Score31.0%

HT Draw29.1%

Equal Goals Each Half20.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.3%

HT Away Win15.8%

HT Under 0.515.6%

HT/FT Away/Away7.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.6%

HT/FT Away/Home4.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Home/Away1.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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