England · Premier League

Brighton vs Leeds

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Sep 5

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

51% confidence

Brighton 51.2% Draw 26.5% Leeds 22.3%

Over 2.5 - 79% BTTS - 72%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

79%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

78%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Leeds: 7 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.7%

Exact-score model probability

Brighton

L W D L L W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 10:8 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.33

Leeds

D W W L W D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 6:5 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 5

Brighton 2wins ·2 draws ·Leeds 1wins

Brighton 0-1 LeedsMay 17, 2026

Brighton 3-0 LeedsNov 1, 2025

Brighton 2-2 LeedsMar 11, 2023

Brighton 1-0 LeedsAug 27, 2022

Brighton 1-1 LeedsMay 15, 2022

📈 Probability Breakdown

Brighton win51.2%

Draw26.5%

Leeds win22.3%

Over 1.5 goals76.1%

Over 2.5 goals78.8%

Over 3.5 goals28.5%

Both teams to score72.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

91.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

91.1%

Home Team to Score

88.9%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)80.7%

Home or Away (12)80.1%

Draw No Bet - Home76.0%

Both Halves Over 0.565.7%

Goal in Both Halves65.7%

Home Win60.8%

Draw or Away (X2)39.1%

Draw No Bet - Away24.0%

Draw19.9%

Away Win19.2%

Exactly 1 Goal11.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.5%

Under 5.5 Goals87.5%

Over 1.5 Goals84.9%

Under 4.5 Goals75.1%

Over 2.5 Goals65.3%

2-4 Goals60.0%

Under 3.5 Goals56.6%

1-3 Goals53.1%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 3.5 Goals43.4%

4+ Goals43.4%

2-3 Goals41.5%

3-4 Goals40.4%

Under 2.5 Goals34.7%

1-2 Goals31.2%

Over 4.5 Goals24.9%

Exactly 3 Goals21.9%

Exactly 2 Goals19.6%

Under 1.5 Goals15.1%

Over 5.5 Goals12.5%

Under 0.5 Goals3.5%

Exactly 0 Goals3.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score88.9%

Away Team to Score68.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)61.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)38.9%

Home Clean Sheet31.2%

Home Win to Nil27.8%

Away Clean Sheet11.1%

Away Win to Nil7.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.588.9%

Away Over 0.568.7%

Home Over 1.564.5%

Home Over 2.537.7%

Home 3+ Goals37.7%

Away Exactly 136.3%

Away Over 1.532.4%

Away Exactly 031.2%

Home Exactly 226.8%

Home Exactly 124.4%

Away Exactly 221.1%

Away Over 2.511.3%

Away 3+ Goals11.3%

Home Exactly 011.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)91.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away91.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)80.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home80.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)79.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away79.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)61.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away61.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)60.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)39.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away39.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)38.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home38.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.5%

Home to win by 122.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)20.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home20.1%

Home to win by 3+20.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)19.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.2%

Home to win by 218.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.9%

Away to win by 111.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)8.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home8.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.1%

Away to win by 25.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.2%

Away to win by 3+2.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.552.3%

Home & Over 2.544.9%

Home & BTTS33.1%

Home & No BTTS27.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.525.8%

Draw & BTTS16.4%

Home & Under 2.516.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.0%

Away & Over 2.512.9%

Draw & Under 2.512.3%

Away & BTTS11.6%

BTTS & Under 2.58.9%

Draw & Over 2.57.6%

Away & No BTTS7.6%

Away & Under 2.56.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.578.0%

HT Under 1.555.3%

HT Home Win46.0%

2nd Half More Goals45.8%

HT Over 1.544.7%

HT/FT Home/Home39.8%

HT Draw35.0%

1st Half More Goals31.8%

HT Both Teams Score25.6%

Equal Goals Each Half22.5%

HT Under 0.522.0%

HT Away Win19.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.5%

HT/FT Away/Away10.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Away/Home3.6%

HT/FT Home/Away1.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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