England · Championship

Burnley vs Bristol City

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Sep 5

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

56% confidence

Burnley 22.6% Draw 21.5% Bristol City 55.9%

Over 2.5 - 73% BTTS - 71%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

79%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

71%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 8.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Bristol City: 4 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.9%

Exact-score model probability

Burnley

D L L D D D

Form 0-4-2 Goals 7:12 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 2

Bristol City

W W D L L W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 9:7 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Burnley win22.6%

Draw21.5%

Bristol City win55.9%

Over 1.5 goals90.4%

Over 2.5 goals73.3%

Over 3.5 goals52.9%

Both teams to score70.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

91.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home

91.3%

Away Team to Score

90.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.4%

Draw or Away (X2)76.3%

Both Halves Over 0.572.0%

Goal in Both Halves72.0%

Draw No Bet - Away70.6%

Away Win56.8%

Home or Draw (1X)43.1%

Draw No Bet - Home29.4%

Home Win23.6%

Draw19.5%

Exactly 1 Goal8.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.7%

Over 1.5 Goals89.3%

Under 5.5 Goals81.4%

Over 2.5 Goals73.3%

Under 4.5 Goals66.5%

2-4 Goals55.9%

Over 3.5 Goals52.9%

4+ Goals52.9%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals47.1%

1-3 Goals44.8%

3-4 Goals39.8%

2-3 Goals36.4%

Over 4.5 Goals33.5%

Under 2.5 Goals26.7%

1-2 Goals24.4%

Exactly 3 Goals20.4%

Over 5.5 Goals18.6%

Exactly 2 Goals16.0%

Under 1.5 Goals10.7%

Under 0.5 Goals2.3%

Exactly 0 Goals2.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score90.3%

Home Team to Score77.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)69.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)30.3%

Away Clean Sheet22.8%

Away Win to Nil20.6%

Home Clean Sheet9.6%

Home Win to Nil7.4%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.590.3%

Home Over 0.577.1%

Away Over 1.567.8%

Home Over 1.543.4%

Away Over 2.541.4%

Away 3+ Goals41.4%

Home Exactly 133.7%

Away Exactly 226.4%

Home Exactly 224.9%

Home Exactly 022.8%

Away Exactly 122.5%

Home Over 2.518.5%

Home 3+ Goals18.5%

Away Exactly 09.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)96.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away96.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)91.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home91.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)89.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away89.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)80.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home80.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)76.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away76.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)64.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home64.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)56.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)43.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home43.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)35.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away35.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)23.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw20.9%

Away to win by 120.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)19.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away19.1%

Away to win by 3+19.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw16.8%

Away to win by 216.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw13.2%

Home to win by 113.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw10.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)10.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home10.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)8.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away8.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw6.7%

Home to win by 26.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw5.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home3.8%

Home to win by 3+3.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)3.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away3.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.562.1%

Away & Over 2.545.6%

Away & BTTS36.1%

Away & No BTTS20.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.519.0%

Home & Over 2.518.0%

Draw & BTTS17.3%

Home & BTTS16.2%

Away & Under 2.511.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.2%

Draw & Under 2.59.8%

Draw & Over 2.59.7%

BTTS & Under 2.57.6%

Home & No BTTS7.4%

Home & Under 2.55.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.582.0%

HT Over 1.551.2%

HT Under 1.548.8%

2nd Half More Goals47.0%

HT Away Win44.3%

HT/FT Away/Away37.1%

HT Draw32.9%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT Both Teams Score31.6%

HT Home Win22.8%

Equal Goals Each Half20.9%

HT Under 0.518.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away15.7%

HT/FT Home/Home13.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home7.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Away4.1%

HT/FT Away/Home2.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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