England · Championship

Burnley vs Charlton

Kick-off 19:45 · Tue, Oct 13

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

73% confidence

Burnley 72.5% Draw 14.6% Charlton 12.9%

Over 2.5 - 86% BTTS - 75%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

87%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

86%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

1X · Home or Draw covers 87.1% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 12.9% on the only losing outcome.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Burnley: 6 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

1X · Home or Draw

87.1%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

12.9%

Only the uncovered result loses

Burnley

W D L D L D

Form 1-3-2 Goals 9:8 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.33

Charlton

D L D D L D

Form 0-4-2 Goals 3:9 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Burnley win72.5%

Draw14.6%

Charlton win12.9%

Over 1.5 goals95.9%

Over 2.5 goals86.0%

Over 3.5 goals70.9%

Both teams to score75.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

88.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

88.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

88.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)85.9%

Home or Away (12)85.8%

Draw No Bet - Home84.4%

Both Halves Over 0.582.5%

Goal in Both Halves82.5%

Home Win72.4%

Draw or Away (X2)26.8%

Draw No Bet - Away15.6%

Draw13.4%

Away Win13.4%

Exactly 1 Goal3.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.4%

Over 1.5 Goals94.6%

Over 2.5 Goals85.3%

Over 3.5 Goals70.4%

4+ Goals70.4%

Under 5.5 Goals65.2%

Over 4.5 Goals52.3%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Under 4.5 Goals47.7%

2-4 Goals42.3%

Over 5.5 Goals34.8%

3-4 Goals33.0%

Under 3.5 Goals29.6%

1-3 Goals28.1%

2-3 Goals24.2%

Exactly 3 Goals15.0%

Under 2.5 Goals14.7%

1-2 Goals13.1%

Exactly 2 Goals9.3%

Under 1.5 Goals5.4%

Under 0.5 Goals1.6%

Exactly 0 Goals0.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.7%

Away Team to Score76.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)74.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)25.9%

Home Clean Sheet22.4%

Home Win to Nil21.6%

Away Clean Sheet3.5%

Away Win to Nil2.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.7%

Home Over 1.584.0%

Away Over 0.576.8%

Home Over 2.564.3%

Home 3+ Goals64.3%

Away Over 1.543.5%

Away Exactly 133.3%

Away Exactly 224.8%

Away Exactly 022.4%

Home Exactly 219.7%

Away Over 2.518.7%

Away 3+ Goals18.7%

Home Exactly 111.8%

Home Exactly 03.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)88.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away88.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)85.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home85.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)78.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away78.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)72.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)62.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away62.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)54.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home54.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)44.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away44.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)36.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home36.4%

Home to win by 3+36.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)26.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away26.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)21.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home21.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.3%

Home to win by 218.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.7%

Home to win by 117.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)13.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)10.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home10.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw10.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw7.9%

Away to win by 17.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.6%

Away to win by 23.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.9%

Away to win by 3+1.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.570.2%

Home & Over 2.565.3%

Home & BTTS50.8%

Home & No BTTS21.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.515.2%

Draw & BTTS12.6%

Away & Over 2.511.3%

Away & BTTS10.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.510.0%

Draw & Over 2.58.7%

Home & Under 2.57.1%

Draw & Under 2.54.7%

BTTS & Under 2.54.0%

Away & No BTTS2.7%

Away & Under 2.52.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.7%

HT Over 1.564.0%

HT Home Win57.5%

HT/FT Home/Home52.1%

2nd Half More Goals49.3%

HT Both Teams Score38.0%

HT Under 1.536.0%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw26.0%

Equal Goals Each Half18.3%

HT Away Win16.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.0%

HT Under 0.511.3%

HT/FT Away/Away7.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.8%

HT/FT Away/Home5.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Home/Away1.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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