England · Championship

Burnley vs Derby

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Sep 19

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

53% confidence

Burnley 52.8% Draw 22.9% Derby 24.3%

Over 2.5 - 69% BTTS - 68%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

77%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

68%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 9.2%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Derby: 2 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.2%

Exact-score model probability

Burnley

L D L D L L

Form 0-2-4 Goals 6:14 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2.33

Derby

D L L W L D

Form 1-2-3 Goals 4:9 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Burnley win52.8%

Draw22.9%

Derby win24.3%

Over 1.5 goals88.3%

Over 2.5 goals69.3%

Over 3.5 goals48.0%

Both teams to score68.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

88.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

88.8%

Home Team to Score

88.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)79.3%

Home or Draw (1X)74.6%

Both Halves Over 0.568.8%

Goal in Both Halves68.8%

Draw No Bet - Home68.0%

Home Win53.9%

Draw or Away (X2)46.1%

Draw No Bet - Away32.0%

Away Win25.4%

Draw20.7%

Exactly 1 Goal10.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.2%

Over 1.5 Goals87.2%

Under 5.5 Goals84.8%

Under 4.5 Goals71.1%

Over 2.5 Goals69.3%

2-4 Goals58.3%

Under 3.5 Goals52.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

1-3 Goals49.2%

Over 3.5 Goals48.0%

4+ Goals48.0%

3-4 Goals40.4%

2-3 Goals39.2%

Under 2.5 Goals30.7%

Over 4.5 Goals28.9%

1-2 Goals27.9%

Exactly 3 Goals21.3%

Exactly 2 Goals17.9%

Over 5.5 Goals15.2%

Under 1.5 Goals12.8%

Under 0.5 Goals2.8%

Exactly 0 Goals2.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score88.3%

Away Team to Score76.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)67.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)32.8%

Home Clean Sheet23.9%

Home Win to Nil21.1%

Away Clean Sheet11.7%

Away Win to Nil8.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.588.3%

Away Over 0.576.1%

Home Over 1.563.2%

Away Over 1.541.9%

Home Over 2.536.3%

Home 3+ Goals36.3%

Away Exactly 134.2%

Home Exactly 226.9%

Home Exactly 125.1%

Away Exactly 224.5%

Away Exactly 023.9%

Away Over 2.517.4%

Away 3+ Goals17.4%

Home Exactly 011.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)93.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away93.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)88.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home88.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)83.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away83.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)74.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home74.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)67.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away67.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)53.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)46.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away46.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)32.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home32.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)25.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.3%

Home to win by 121.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)16.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home16.4%

Home to win by 3+16.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.2%

Home to win by 216.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw14.2%

Away to win by 114.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)11.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away11.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw9.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.2%

Away to win by 27.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)7.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home7.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.0%

Away to win by 3+4.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.558.6%

Home & Over 2.541.5%

Home & BTTS32.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.522.1%

Home & No BTTS21.1%

Away & Over 2.518.5%

Draw & BTTS17.9%

Away & BTTS16.5%

Home & Under 2.512.4%

Draw & Under 2.511.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.7%

Draw & Over 2.59.3%

Away & No BTTS8.9%

BTTS & Under 2.58.6%

Away & Under 2.56.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.580.0%

HT Under 1.552.2%

HT Over 1.547.8%

2nd Half More Goals46.4%

HT Home Win41.9%

HT/FT Home/Home34.6%

HT Draw34.5%

1st Half More Goals31.9%

HT Both Teams Score29.4%

HT Away Win23.6%

Equal Goals Each Half21.7%

HT Under 0.520.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.6%

HT/FT Away/Away14.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Away/Home3.8%

HT/FT Home/Away2.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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