England · Championship

Burnley vs Middlesbrough

Kick-off 20:00 · Wed, Sep 2

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

51% confidence

Burnley 28.3% Draw 20.8% Middlesbrough 50.9%

Over 2.5 - 80% BTTS - 78%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 7.6%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Middlesbrough: 3 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.6%

Exact-score model probability

Burnley

L L D D D L

Form 0-3-3 Goals 6:12 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2

Middlesbrough

W W L W W L

Form 4-0-2 Goals 10:6 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Burnley win28.3%

Draw20.8%

Middlesbrough win50.9%

Over 1.5 goals93.5%

Over 2.5 goals80.0%

Over 3.5 goals61.9%

Both teams to score77.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

92.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home

92.0%

Away Team to Score

91.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.7%

Both Halves Over 0.577.3%

Goal in Both Halves77.3%

Draw or Away (X2)70.8%

Draw No Bet - Away63.9%

Away Win51.6%

Home or Draw (1X)48.3%

Draw No Bet - Home36.1%

Home Win29.1%

Draw19.2%

Exactly 1 Goal5.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.5%

Over 1.5 Goals92.6%

Over 2.5 Goals79.9%

Under 5.5 Goals74.1%

Over 3.5 Goals61.9%

4+ Goals61.9%

Under 4.5 Goals57.5%

2-4 Goals50.1%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 4.5 Goals42.5%

Under 3.5 Goals38.1%

3-4 Goals37.4%

1-3 Goals36.6%

2-3 Goals30.7%

Over 5.5 Goals25.9%

Under 2.5 Goals20.1%

1-2 Goals18.6%

Exactly 3 Goals18.1%

Exactly 2 Goals12.7%

Under 1.5 Goals7.4%

Under 0.5 Goals1.5%

Exactly 0 Goals1.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score91.2%

Home Team to Score84.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)76.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)23.3%

Away Clean Sheet15.9%

Away Win to Nil14.5%

Home Clean Sheet8.7%

Home Win to Nil7.3%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.591.2%

Home Over 0.584.0%

Away Over 1.570.1%

Home Over 1.554.7%

Away Over 2.544.1%

Away 3+ Goals44.1%

Home Exactly 129.2%

Home Over 2.527.9%

Home 3+ Goals27.9%

Home Exactly 226.8%

Away Exactly 225.9%

Away Exactly 121.2%

Home Exactly 015.9%

Away Exactly 08.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.2%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)93.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away93.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)92.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home92.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)85.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away85.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)82.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home82.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)70.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away70.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)67.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home67.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)51.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)48.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home48.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)32.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away32.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)29.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.3%

Away to win by 119.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)17.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away17.2%

Away to win by 3+17.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw15.1%

Away to win by 215.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)14.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home14.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.5%

Home to win by 114.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw9.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw8.5%

Home to win by 28.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)7.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away7.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)6.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home6.1%

Home to win by 3+6.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw4.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw4.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away3.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.570.5%

Away & Over 2.544.1%

Away & BTTS37.0%

Home & Over 2.524.2%

Home & BTTS21.8%

Draw & BTTS17.8%

Away & No BTTS14.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.513.7%

Draw & Over 2.511.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.5%

Draw & Under 2.57.6%

Away & Under 2.57.5%

Home & No BTTS7.3%

BTTS & Under 2.56.2%

Home & Under 2.54.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.585.4%

HT Over 1.557.4%

2nd Half More Goals48.2%

HT Under 1.542.6%

HT Away Win41.7%

HT Both Teams Score37.5%

HT/FT Away/Away33.5%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw31.1%

HT Home Win27.2%

Equal Goals Each Half19.6%

HT/FT Home/Home17.5%

HT Under 0.514.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away13.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home8.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Away4.4%

HT/FT Away/Home2.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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