England · League Cup

Burnley vs Notts County

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Aug 8

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

57% confidence

Burnley 15.8% Draw 27.5% Notts County 56.7%

Over 2.5 - 43% BTTS - 44%

🎯 Best Pick

Away Win

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 14%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-1 at 15%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

15%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

14%

Market does not fully agree

Burnley

D L D L L L

Form 0-2-4 Goals 5:12 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 2

Notts County

No recent results stored yet

📈 Probability Breakdown

Burnley win15.8%

Draw27.5%

Notts County win56.7%

Over 1.5 goals70.3%

Over 2.5 goals42.7%

Over 3.5 goals21.9%

Both teams to score44.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 0.5 Goals

90.8%

Under 4.5 Goals

90.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

86.2%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)82.7%

Draw No Bet - Away77.1%

Home or Away (12)75.4%

Away Win58.1%

Both Halves Over 0.548.1%

Goal in Both Halves48.1%

Home or Draw (1X)41.9%

Draw24.6%

Draw No Bet - Home22.9%

Exactly 1 Goal21.9%

Home Win17.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals96.5%

Over 0.5 Goals90.8%

Under 4.5 Goals90.6%

Under 3.5 Goals78.1%

1-3 Goals69.0%

Over 1.5 Goals68.9%

2-4 Goals59.4%

Under 2.5 Goals57.3%

Total Goals Even50.4%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

1-2 Goals48.1%

2-3 Goals47.0%

Over 2.5 Goals42.7%

3-4 Goals33.3%

Under 1.5 Goals31.1%

Exactly 2 Goals26.2%

Over 3.5 Goals21.9%

4+ Goals21.9%

Exactly 3 Goals20.8%

Over 4.5 Goals9.4%

Under 0.5 Goals9.2%

Exactly 0 Goals9.2%

Over 5.5 Goals3.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score80.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)57.3%

Home Team to Score53.2%

Away Clean Sheet46.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)42.7%

Away Win to Nil37.6%

Home Clean Sheet19.6%

Home Win to Nil10.4%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.580.4%

Home Over 0.553.2%

Away Over 1.548.4%

Home Exactly 046.8%

Home Exactly 135.5%

Away Exactly 132.0%

Away Exactly 226.0%

Away Over 2.522.4%

Away 3+ Goals22.4%

Away Exactly 019.6%

Home Over 1.517.7%

Home Exactly 213.5%

Home Over 2.54.2%

Home 3+ Goals4.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away100.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away95.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)86.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home86.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)82.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away82.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)68.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home68.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)58.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)41.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home41.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)31.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away31.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw26.3%

Away to win by 126.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw18.0%

Away to win by 218.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)17.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)13.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away13.8%

Away to win by 3+13.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.3%

Home to win by 112.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw8.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)5.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home5.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw3.9%

Home to win by 23.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home1.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.1%

Home to win by 3+1.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.9%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.546.0%

Away & No BTTS37.6%

BTTS & Over 2.531.4%

Away & Over 2.531.0%

Away & Under 2.527.1%

Draw & Under 2.520.5%

Away & BTTS20.5%

Draw & BTTS15.4%

BTTS & Under 2.511.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.3%

Home & No BTTS10.4%

Home & Under 2.59.6%

Home & Over 2.57.7%

Home & BTTS6.8%

Draw & Over 2.54.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.570.9%

HT Over 0.565.8%

HT Draw43.3%

2nd Half More Goals42.0%

HT Away Win41.1%

HT/FT Away/Away36.1%

HT Under 0.534.2%

1st Half More Goals30.5%

HT Over 1.529.1%

Equal Goals Each Half27.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away19.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw16.4%

HT Home Win15.6%

HT Both Teams Score15.0%

HT/FT Home/Home9.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home7.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Away2.3%

HT/FT Away/Home0.9%

🔎 API-Football Model

An independent statistical model, shown for comparison.

Burnley win33%

Draw33%

Notts County win33%

AdviceNo predictions available

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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