England · Championship

Burnley vs West Ham

Kick-off 16:00 · Sun, Aug 16

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

38% confidence

Burnley 37.8% Draw 30.3% West Ham 31.9%

Over 2.5 - 45% BTTS - 52%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 0.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 12.6%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to West Ham: 3 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Burnley 0 wins, 2 draws, West Ham 3 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

12.6%

Exact-score model probability

Burnley

D D L D L L

Form 0-3-3 Goals 5:9 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.5

West Ham

W W L L L W

Form 3-0-3 Goals 9:9 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

Burnley 0wins ·2 draws ·West Ham 3wins

Burnley 0-2 West HamFeb 7, 2026

Burnley 2-3 West HamNov 8, 2025

Burnley 2-2 West HamMar 10, 2024

Burnley 1-2 West HamNov 25, 2023

Burnley 1-1 West HamApr 17, 2022

📈 Probability Breakdown

Burnley win37.8%

Draw30.3%

West Ham win31.9%

Over 1.5 goals72.7%

Over 2.5 goals45.3%

Over 3.5 goals24.0%

Both teams to score52.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 4.5 Goals

88.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

86.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

86.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)73.4%

Draw or Away (X2)66.9%

Home or Draw (1X)59.7%

Draw No Bet - Away54.9%

Both Halves Over 0.551.5%

Goal in Both Halves51.5%

Draw No Bet - Home45.1%

Away Win40.3%

Home Win33.1%

Draw26.6%

Exactly 1 Goal19.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals95.5%

Over 0.5 Goals92.2%

Under 4.5 Goals88.4%

Under 3.5 Goals74.7%

Over 1.5 Goals72.3%

1-3 Goals66.9%

2-4 Goals60.7%

Under 2.5 Goals53.1%

Total Goals Even50.3%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

2-3 Goals47.0%

Over 2.5 Goals46.9%

1-2 Goals45.3%

3-4 Goals35.3%

Under 1.5 Goals27.7%

Exactly 2 Goals25.4%

Over 3.5 Goals25.3%

4+ Goals25.3%

Exactly 3 Goals21.6%

Over 4.5 Goals11.6%

Under 0.5 Goals7.8%

Exactly 0 Goals7.8%

Over 5.5 Goals4.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score74.1%

Home Team to Score69.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)51.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)48.2%

Away Clean Sheet30.1%

Home Clean Sheet25.9%

Away Win to Nil22.3%

Home Win to Nil18.1%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.574.1%

Home Over 0.569.8%

Away Over 1.539.1%

Home Exactly 136.1%

Away Exactly 135.0%

Home Over 1.533.7%

Home Exactly 030.1%

Away Exactly 025.9%

Away Exactly 223.6%

Home Exactly 221.7%

Away Over 2.515.5%

Away 3+ Goals15.5%

Home Over 2.512.0%

Home 3+ Goals12.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away95.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)86.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away86.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)81.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home81.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)66.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away66.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)59.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home59.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)40.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)33.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw21.7%

Away to win by 121.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.3%

Home to win by 119.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)18.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away18.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)13.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home13.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw11.9%

Away to win by 211.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw9.3%

Home to win by 29.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)6.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away6.7%

Away to win by 3+6.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)4.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home4.5%

Home to win by 3+4.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.540.4%

BTTS & Over 2.539.1%

Away & Over 2.522.6%

Away & No BTTS22.3%

Draw & Under 2.520.4%

Draw & BTTS18.8%

Home & Over 2.518.1%

Home & No BTTS18.1%

Away & BTTS18.0%

Away & Under 2.517.7%

Home & Under 2.515.0%

Home & BTTS15.0%

BTTS & Under 2.512.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.8%

Draw & Over 2.56.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.568.3%

HT Under 1.568.2%

HT Draw43.0%

2nd Half More Goals42.8%

HT Over 1.531.8%

HT Under 0.531.7%

1st Half More Goals30.8%

HT Away Win30.7%

Equal Goals Each Half26.4%

HT Home Win26.3%

HT/FT Away/Away23.7%

HT Both Teams Score19.0%

HT/FT Home/Home19.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw16.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Away2.2%

HT/FT Away/Home1.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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