Italy · Serie A

Cagliari vs Lecce

Kick-off 17:30 · Mon, Sep 7

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

45% confidence

Cagliari 44.6% Draw 30.5% Lecce 24.9%

Over 2.5 - 56% BTTS - 60%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

87%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

75%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

60%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 12%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Lecce: 10 points versus 12 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Cagliari 2 wins, 1 draws, Lecce 2 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

12%

Exact-score model probability

Cagliari

L W W W L D

Form 3-1-2 Goals 5:5 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 0.83

Lecce

L W W W L W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 8:8 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 5

Cagliari 2wins ·1 draws ·Lecce 2wins

Cagliari 0-2 LecceFeb 16, 2026

Cagliari 2-1 LecceSep 19, 2025

Cagliari 4-1 LecceJan 19, 2025

Cagliari 0-1 LecceAug 31, 2024

Cagliari 1-1 LecceMay 5, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Cagliari win44.6%

Draw30.5%

Lecce win24.9%

Over 1.5 goals58.0%

Over 2.5 goals55.7%

Over 3.5 goals13.4%

Both teams to score60.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 4.5 Goals

85.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

84.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

84.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)74.6%

Home or Draw (1X)64.5%

Draw or Away (X2)60.9%

Both Halves Over 0.555.7%

Goal in Both Halves55.7%

Draw No Bet - Home52.4%

Draw No Bet - Away47.6%

Home Win39.1%

Away Win35.5%

Draw25.4%

Exactly 1 Goal17.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals93.8%

Over 0.5 Goals93.7%

Under 4.5 Goals85.3%

Over 1.5 Goals76.3%

Under 3.5 Goals69.9%

1-3 Goals63.6%

2-4 Goals61.6%

Over 2.5 Goals52.3%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals47.7%

2-3 Goals46.3%

1-2 Goals41.5%

3-4 Goals37.5%

Over 3.5 Goals30.1%

4+ Goals30.1%

Exactly 2 Goals24.1%

Under 1.5 Goals23.7%

Exactly 3 Goals22.2%

Over 4.5 Goals14.7%

Under 0.5 Goals6.3%

Exactly 0 Goals6.3%

Over 5.5 Goals6.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score75.9%

Away Team to Score73.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)56.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)43.9%

Home Clean Sheet26.1%

Away Clean Sheet24.1%

Home Win to Nil19.8%

Away Win to Nil17.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.575.9%

Away Over 0.573.9%

Home Over 1.541.6%

Away Over 1.538.9%

Away Exactly 135.1%

Home Exactly 134.3%

Away Exactly 026.1%

Home Exactly 224.4%

Home Exactly 024.1%

Away Exactly 223.6%

Home Over 2.517.2%

Home 3+ Goals17.2%

Away Over 2.515.3%

Away 3+ Goals15.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)93.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away93.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)84.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home84.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)81.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away81.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)64.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home64.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)60.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away60.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)39.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)35.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.7%

Home to win by 120.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.6%

Away to win by 119.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)18.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home18.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)15.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away15.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw11.5%

Home to win by 211.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw10.3%

Away to win by 210.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)6.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home6.9%

Home to win by 3+6.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)5.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away5.7%

Away to win by 3+5.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw4.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.544.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.535.7%

Home & Over 2.523.8%

Away & Over 2.521.4%

Home & No BTTS19.8%

Home & BTTS19.3%

Draw & BTTS19.1%

Draw & Under 2.518.3%

Away & No BTTS17.8%

Away & BTTS17.7%

Home & Under 2.515.3%

Away & Under 2.514.1%

BTTS & Under 2.512.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.2%

Draw & Over 2.57.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.571.2%

HT Under 1.564.6%

2nd Half More Goals43.7%

HT Draw41.1%

HT Over 1.535.4%

1st Half More Goals31.1%

HT Home Win30.6%

HT Under 0.528.8%

HT Away Win28.4%

Equal Goals Each Half25.2%

HT/FT Home/Home23.1%

HT Both Teams Score21.5%

HT/FT Away/Away20.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw15.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away12.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home2.4%

HT/FT Home/Away2.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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