Netherlands · Eredivisie

Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar

Kick-off 13:30 · Sun, Oct 18

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

64% confidence

Cambuur 14.5% Draw 21.5% AZ Alkmaar 64.0%

Over 2.5 - 95% BTTS - 83%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

86%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

83%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-3 at 7.6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to AZ Alkmaar: 8 points versus 13 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.84 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.6%

Exact-score model probability

Cambuur

W D W D L L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 10:12 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 2

AZ Alkmaar

L W D W W W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 13:7 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 4

Cambuur 0wins ·1 draws ·AZ Alkmaar 3wins

Cambuur 1-2 AZ AlkmaarFeb 25, 2023

Cambuur 0-1 AZ AlkmaarAug 28, 2022

Cambuur 0-0 AZ AlkmaarJan 22, 2022

Cambuur 1-3 AZ AlkmaarOct 3, 2021

📈 Probability Breakdown

Cambuur win14.5%

Draw21.5%

AZ Alkmaar win64.0%

Over 1.5 goals84.1%

Over 2.5 goals94.9%

Over 3.5 goals40.0%

Both teams to score83.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

88.5%

Draw or Away (X2)

88.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)

88.1%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)88.1%

Draw No Bet - Away87.4%

Home or Away (12)86.8%

Both Halves Over 0.582.2%

Goal in Both Halves82.2%

Away Win75.8%

Home or Draw (1X)23.3%

Draw No Bet - Home12.6%

Draw12.3%

Home Win11.0%

Exactly 1 Goal3.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.3%

Over 1.5 Goals94.4%

Over 2.5 Goals84.9%

Over 3.5 Goals69.8%

4+ Goals69.8%

Under 5.5 Goals65.9%

Over 4.5 Goals51.6%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

Under 4.5 Goals48.4%

2-4 Goals42.7%

Over 5.5 Goals34.1%

3-4 Goals33.3%

Under 3.5 Goals30.2%

1-3 Goals28.5%

2-3 Goals24.5%

Under 2.5 Goals15.1%

Exactly 3 Goals15.1%

1-2 Goals13.4%

Exactly 2 Goals9.4%

Under 1.5 Goals5.6%

Under 0.5 Goals1.7%

Exactly 0 Goals0.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score95.9%

Home Team to Score73.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)71.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)28.7%

Away Clean Sheet25.5%

Away Win to Nil24.6%

Home Clean Sheet3.2%

Home Win to Nil2.4%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.595.9%

Away Over 1.585.0%

Home Over 0.573.6%

Away Over 2.566.1%

Away 3+ Goals66.1%

Home Over 1.539.0%

Home Exactly 134.6%

Home Exactly 025.5%

Home Exactly 223.5%

Away Exactly 218.9%

Home Over 2.515.5%

Home 3+ Goals15.5%

Away Exactly 111.0%

Away Exactly 03.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)94.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away94.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)93.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)88.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away88.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)86.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home86.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)75.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)75.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home75.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)59.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home59.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)58.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away58.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)40.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home40.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)40.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away40.1%

Away to win by 3+40.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)24.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away24.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)23.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home23.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw18.6%

Away to win by 218.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.1%

Away to win by 117.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw16.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)12.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away12.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw11.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)11.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw7.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw6.7%

Home to win by 16.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)5.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away5.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)4.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home4.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw2.9%

Home to win by 22.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home1.3%

Home to win by 3+1.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.568.2%

BTTS & Over 2.567.5%

Away & BTTS51.2%

Away & No BTTS24.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.517.5%

Draw & BTTS11.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.510.3%

Home & Over 2.59.1%

Home & BTTS8.6%

Away & Under 2.57.7%

Draw & Over 2.57.6%

Draw & Under 2.54.6%

BTTS & Under 2.53.8%

Home & No BTTS2.4%

Home & Under 2.51.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.5%

HT Over 1.563.7%

HT Away Win60.2%

HT/FT Away/Away55.5%

2nd Half More Goals49.3%

HT Under 1.536.3%

HT Both Teams Score36.1%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw25.3%

Equal Goals Each Half18.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away16.3%

HT Home Win14.5%

HT Under 0.511.5%

HT/FT Home/Home6.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Away4.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home3.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Away/Home1.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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