England · Championship

Cardiff vs Birmingham

Full time · 1:0

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

46% confidence

Cardiff 45.6% Draw 21.6% Birmingham 32.8%

Over 2.5 - 79% BTTS - 78%

✓ Pick was correct (1:0)

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

78%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

78%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 7.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Birmingham: 8 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.5%

Exact-score model probability

Cardiff

D W L W L D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 12:8 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.33

Birmingham

W W W D D L

Form 3-2-1 Goals 11:4 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 0.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Cardiff win45.6%

Draw21.6%

Birmingham win32.8%

Over 1.5 goals93.1%

Over 2.5 goals79.0%

Over 3.5 goals60.4%

Both teams to score77.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

89.6%

Home Over 0.5

89.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

86.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.0%

Both Halves Over 0.576.5%

Goal in Both Halves76.5%

Home or Draw (1X)66.4%

Draw No Bet - Home58.1%

Draw or Away (X2)53.5%

Home Win46.4%

Draw No Bet - Away41.9%

Away Win33.6%

Draw19.9%

Exactly 1 Goal6.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.4%

Over 1.5 Goals92.1%

Over 2.5 Goals78.9%

Under 5.5 Goals75.4%

Over 3.5 Goals60.4%

4+ Goals60.4%

Under 4.5 Goals59.1%

2-4 Goals51.2%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Over 4.5 Goals40.9%

Under 3.5 Goals39.6%

1-3 Goals38.0%

3-4 Goals38.0%

2-3 Goals31.7%

Over 5.5 Goals24.6%

Under 2.5 Goals21.1%

1-2 Goals19.5%

Exactly 3 Goals18.5%

Exactly 2 Goals13.2%

Under 1.5 Goals7.9%

Under 0.5 Goals1.6%

Exactly 0 Goals1.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score89.6%

Away Team to Score85.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)76.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)23.4%

Home Clean Sheet14.5%

Home Win to Nil13.0%

Away Clean Sheet10.3%

Away Win to Nil8.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.589.6%

Away Over 0.585.4%

Home Over 1.566.2%

Away Over 1.557.4%

Home Over 2.539.6%

Home 3+ Goals39.6%

Away Over 2.530.3%

Away 3+ Goals30.3%

Away Exactly 128.0%

Away Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 226.6%

Home Exactly 123.4%

Away Exactly 014.5%

Home Exactly 010.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)93.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away93.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)92.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home92.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)86.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away86.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)82.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home82.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)72.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away72.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)66.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home66.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)53.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away53.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)46.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)33.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)27.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home27.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.8%

Home to win by 118.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)17.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away17.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.0%

Away to win by 116.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)13.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home13.9%

Home to win by 3+13.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.7%

Home to win by 213.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw9.9%

Away to win by 29.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)7.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away7.7%

Away to win by 3+7.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)6.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home6.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.570.0%

Home & Over 2.539.2%

Home & BTTS33.4%

Away & Over 2.527.9%

Away & BTTS24.8%

Draw & BTTS18.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.514.5%

Home & No BTTS13.0%

Draw & Over 2.511.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.9%

Away & No BTTS8.8%

Draw & Under 2.58.1%

Home & Under 2.57.3%

BTTS & Under 2.56.6%

Away & Under 2.55.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.584.9%

HT Over 1.556.3%

2nd Half More Goals48.0%

HT Under 1.543.7%

HT Home Win38.2%

HT Both Teams Score37.1%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw31.8%

HT Away Win30.0%

HT/FT Home/Home29.5%

HT/FT Away/Away20.4%

Equal Goals Each Half19.8%

HT Under 0.515.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home4.1%

HT/FT Home/Away3.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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