England · Championship

Cardiff vs Burnley

Full time · 5:4

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

78% confidence

Cardiff 77.5% Draw 11.0% Burnley 11.5%

Over 2.5 - 95% BTTS - 85%

✓ Pick was correct (5:4)

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

89%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

85%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 5.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Cardiff: 11 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.4%

Exact-score model probability

Cardiff

D W D W L W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 15:9 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1.5

Burnley

D D L D W D

Form 1-4-1 Goals 9:8 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Cardiff win77.5%

Draw11.0%

Burnley win11.5%

Over 1.5 goals98.9%

Over 2.5 goals95.0%

Over 3.5 goals87.2%

Both teams to score84.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 2.5 Goals

91.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

91.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

91.3%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.591.3%

Goal in Both Halves91.3%

Draw No Bet - Home87.0%

Home or Away (12)86.1%

Home or Draw (1X)85.2%

Home Win74.9%

Draw or Away (X2)21.5%

Draw No Bet - Away13.0%

Away Win11.2%

Draw10.2%

Exactly 1 Goal1.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.2%

Over 1.5 Goals95.1%

Over 2.5 Goals91.5%

Over 3.5 Goals84.0%

4+ Goals84.0%

Over 4.5 Goals72.1%

Over 5.5 Goals57.0%

Total Goals Odd48.2%

Total Goals Even48.2%

Under 5.5 Goals43.0%

Under 4.5 Goals27.9%

2-4 Goals23.0%

3-4 Goals19.4%

Under 3.5 Goals16.0%

1-3 Goals12.2%

2-3 Goals11.1%

Under 2.5 Goals8.5%

Exactly 3 Goals7.5%

Under 1.5 Goals4.9%

1-2 Goals4.7%

Under 0.5 Goals3.8%

Exactly 2 Goals3.6%

Exactly 0 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.2%

Away Team to Score82.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)81.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)18.6%

Home Clean Sheet14.0%

Home Win to Nil13.8%

Away Clean Sheet1.2%

Away Win to Nil1.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.2%

Home Over 1.589.8%

Away Over 0.582.4%

Home Over 2.577.9%

Home 3+ Goals77.9%

Away Over 1.555.4%

Away Over 2.529.4%

Away 3+ Goals29.4%

Away Exactly 127.0%

Away Exactly 226.1%

Away Exactly 014.0%

Home Exactly 211.9%

Home Exactly 15.4%

Home Exactly 01.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)88.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)85.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home85.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)79.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away79.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)74.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)67.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away67.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)60.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home60.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)51.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away51.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)44.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home44.8%

Home to win by 3+44.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)35.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away35.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)29.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home29.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)21.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away21.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)16.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home16.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.1%

Home to win by 216.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.1%

Home to win by 114.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw12.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)11.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)8.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home8.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.2%

Away to win by 16.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.1%

Away to win by 23.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.0%

Away to win by 3+2.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.579.9%

Home & Over 2.572.4%

Home & BTTS61.1%

Home & No BTTS13.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.7%

Away & Over 2.510.5%

Away & BTTS10.2%

Draw & BTTS10.1%

Draw & Over 2.58.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.53.4%

Home & Under 2.52.5%

Draw & Under 2.51.7%

BTTS & Under 2.51.5%

Away & No BTTS1.0%

Away & Under 2.50.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.594.2%

HT Over 1.577.7%

HT Home Win63.3%

HT/FT Home/Home58.4%

2nd Half More Goals51.8%

HT Both Teams Score50.1%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.522.3%

HT Draw20.9%

HT Away Win15.7%

Equal Goals Each Half15.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.1%

HT/FT Away/Away6.5%

HT/FT Away/Home5.9%

HT Under 0.55.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.1%

HT/FT Home/Away1.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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