England · Championship

Cardiff vs Charlton

Kick-off 12:30 · Sat, Sep 19

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

68% confidence

Cardiff 67.6% Draw 14.6% Charlton 17.8%

Over 2.5 - 92% BTTS - 85%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

85%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

85%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 5.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Charlton: 2 points versus 6 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.7%

Exact-score model probability

Cardiff

L D L L D L

Form 0-2-4 Goals 5:10 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.67

Charlton

D D L D W L

Form 1-3-2 Goals 3:10 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Cardiff win67.6%

Draw14.6%

Charlton win17.8%

Over 1.5 goals98.0%

Over 2.5 goals92.1%

Over 3.5 goals81.5%

Both teams to score84.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 2.5 Goals

90.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

90.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

90.1%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.588.1%

Goal in Both Halves88.1%

Home or Away (12)84.9%

Home or Draw (1X)80.8%

Draw No Bet - Home79.0%

Home Win67.1%

Draw or Away (X2)31.6%

Draw No Bet - Away21.0%

Away Win17.8%

Draw13.8%

Exactly 1 Goal2.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.3%

Over 1.5 Goals96.4%

Over 2.5 Goals90.9%

Over 3.5 Goals80.4%

4+ Goals80.4%

Over 4.5 Goals65.6%

Under 5.5 Goals51.3%

Total Goals Even49.4%

Total Goals Odd49.3%

Over 5.5 Goals48.7%

Under 4.5 Goals34.4%

2-4 Goals30.8%

3-4 Goals25.3%

Under 3.5 Goals19.6%

1-3 Goals17.9%

2-3 Goals16.0%

Exactly 3 Goals10.5%

Under 2.5 Goals9.1%

1-2 Goals7.5%

Exactly 2 Goals5.5%

Under 1.5 Goals3.6%

Under 0.5 Goals1.7%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.1%

Away Team to Score85.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)83.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)16.7%

Home Clean Sheet13.2%

Home Win to Nil12.8%

Away Clean Sheet2.6%

Away Win to Nil2.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 1.586.7%

Away Over 0.585.5%

Home Over 2.569.5%

Home 3+ Goals69.5%

Away Over 1.559.0%

Away Over 2.532.2%

Away 3+ Goals32.2%

Away Exactly 226.7%

Away Exactly 126.5%

Home Exactly 217.2%

Away Exactly 013.2%

Home Exactly 19.4%

Home Exactly 02.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.1%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)90.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home90.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)88.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away88.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)80.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home80.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)78.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away78.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)67.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)65.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away65.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)50.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home50.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)48.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away48.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)33.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home33.6%

Home to win by 3+33.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)31.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away31.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)19.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home19.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)17.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.7%

Home to win by 116.7%

Home to win by 216.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw13.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)10.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home10.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw9.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw9.2%

Away to win by 19.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)8.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away8.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw5.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.1%

Away to win by 25.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.6%

Away to win by 3+3.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.580.7%

Home & Over 2.563.5%

Home & BTTS54.2%

Away & Over 2.516.5%

Away & BTTS15.6%

Draw & BTTS13.4%

Home & No BTTS12.8%

Draw & Over 2.510.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.55.3%

Home & Under 2.53.6%

Draw & Under 2.52.9%

BTTS & Under 2.52.5%

Away & No BTTS2.2%

Away & Under 2.51.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.2%

HT Over 1.572.3%

HT Home Win54.8%

2nd Half More Goals50.8%

HT/FT Home/Home48.2%

HT Both Teams Score48.1%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.527.7%

HT Draw24.5%

HT Away Win20.6%

Equal Goals Each Half16.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.3%

HT/FT Away/Away10.5%

HT Under 0.57.8%

HT/FT Away/Home5.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Home/Away2.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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