England · League Cup

Cardiff vs Norwich

Kick-off 19:00 · Tue, Aug 25

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

92% confidence

Cardiff 91.8% Draw 5.8% Norwich 2.4%

Over 2.5 - 90% BTTS - 58%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

92%

Draw No Bet - Home

DNB home — draw refunds stake

92%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-0 at 8%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Cardiff: 5 points versus 4 across the last 3 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Cardiff

D D W

Form 1-2-0 Goals 6:5 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.67

Norwich

L L W L L D

Form 1-1-4 Goals 7:14 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 2.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Cardiff win91.8%

Draw5.8%

Norwich win2.4%

Over 1.5 goals97.1%

Over 2.5 goals89.9%

Over 3.5 goals77.4%

Both teams to score57.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

91.0%

Home or Away (12)

90.9%

Home Over 1.5

89.9%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home97.1%

Home or Draw (1X)93.4%

Home or Away (12)90.9%

Home Win88.3%

Both Halves Over 0.586.3%

Goal in Both Halves86.3%

Draw or Away (X2)7.7%

Draw5.1%

Draw No Bet - Away2.9%

Away Win2.6%

Exactly 1 Goal2.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.5%

Over 1.5 Goals93.0%

Over 2.5 Goals86.3%

Over 3.5 Goals74.3%

4+ Goals74.3%

Under 5.5 Goals59.2%

Over 4.5 Goals58.1%

Total Goals Even48.1%

Total Goals Odd47.8%

Under 4.5 Goals41.9%

Over 5.5 Goals40.8%

2-4 Goals34.9%

3-4 Goals28.2%

Under 3.5 Goals25.7%

1-3 Goals21.3%

2-3 Goals18.8%

Under 2.5 Goals13.7%

Exactly 3 Goals12.0%

1-2 Goals9.2%

Under 1.5 Goals7.0%

Exactly 2 Goals6.7%

Under 0.5 Goals4.5%

Exactly 0 Goals0.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

Away Team to Score55.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)55.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)45.0%

Home Clean Sheet40.3%

Home Win to Nil39.9%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 0.555.6%

Away Exactly 040.3%

Away Exactly 135.0%

Away Over 1.520.7%

Away Exactly 215.2%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Away Over 2.55.5%

Away 3+ Goals5.5%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)93.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home93.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)88.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)79.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)78.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home78.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)66.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away66.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)63.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home63.6%

Home to win by 3+63.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)49.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away49.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)46.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home46.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)32.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away32.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)29.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home29.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)17.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away17.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw16.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)16.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home16.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.8%

Home to win by 214.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw13.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw9.9%

Home to win by 19.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)7.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away7.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw1.9%

Away to win by 11.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.5%

Away to win by 20.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.2%

Away to win by 3+0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.581.5%

BTTS & Over 2.553.2%

Home & BTTS48.4%

Home & No BTTS39.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.533.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.57.9%

Home & Under 2.56.8%

Draw & BTTS4.6%

Draw & Over 2.52.8%

Draw & Under 2.52.3%

Away & Over 2.52.0%

Away & BTTS2.0%

BTTS & Under 2.51.8%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Away & No BTTS0.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.0%

HT Home Win76.4%

HT/FT Home/Home74.7%

HT Over 1.569.5%

2nd Half More Goals50.2%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.530.5%

HT Both Teams Score28.0%

HT Draw17.5%

Equal Goals Each Half17.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.2%

HT Under 0.59.0%

HT Away Win6.1%

HT/FT Away/Home3.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw2.4%

HT/FT Away/Away1.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away0.9%

HT/FT Home/Away0.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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