England · Championship

Cardiff vs Stoke City

Kick-off 19:45 · Tue, Sep 8

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

81% confidence

Cardiff 81.4% Draw 9.8% Stoke City 8.8%

Over 2.5 - 95% BTTS - 81%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

91%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

81%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 5.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Stoke City: 3 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.8%

Exact-score model probability

Cardiff

L L D L D D

Form 0-3-3 Goals 7:11 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.83

Stoke City

W W L D L L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 9:10 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Cardiff win81.4%

Draw9.8%

Stoke City win8.8%

Over 1.5 goals98.7%

Over 2.5 goals94.5%

Over 3.5 goals86.2%

Both teams to score81.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Both Halves Over 0.5

90.8%

Goal in Both Halves

90.8%

Over 2.5 Goals

90.7%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.590.8%

Goal in Both Halves90.8%

Draw No Bet - Home90.1%

Home or Draw (1X)87.3%

Home or Away (12)87.0%

Home Win78.3%

Draw or Away (X2)17.7%

Draw No Bet - Away9.9%

Draw9.0%

Away Win8.7%

Exactly 1 Goal1.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.8%

Over 1.5 Goals94.5%

Over 2.5 Goals90.7%

Over 3.5 Goals82.7%

4+ Goals82.7%

Over 4.5 Goals70.3%

Over 5.5 Goals54.9%

Total Goals Odd48.0%

Total Goals Even48.0%

Under 5.5 Goals45.1%

Under 4.5 Goals29.7%

2-4 Goals24.2%

3-4 Goals20.4%

Under 3.5 Goals17.3%

1-3 Goals13.1%

2-3 Goals11.8%

Under 2.5 Goals9.3%

Exactly 3 Goals8.0%

Under 1.5 Goals5.5%

1-2 Goals5.1%

Under 0.5 Goals4.2%

Exactly 2 Goals3.8%

Exactly 0 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

Away Team to Score78.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)77.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)22.1%

Home Clean Sheet17.2%

Home Win to Nil17.0%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Away Over 0.578.8%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 1.549.3%

Away Exactly 129.5%

Away Exactly 225.4%

Away Over 2.523.8%

Away 3+ Goals23.8%

Away Exactly 017.2%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)87.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home87.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)86.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)78.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)76.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away76.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)65.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home65.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)62.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away62.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)49.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home49.3%

Home to win by 3+49.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)46.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away46.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)33.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home33.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)30.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away30.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)19.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home19.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)17.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away17.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.9%

Home to win by 215.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw13.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw13.2%

Home to win by 113.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw9.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)9.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home9.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)8.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.0%

Away to win by 15.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.3%

Away to win by 22.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.3%

Away to win by 3+1.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.576.3%

Home & Over 2.575.4%

Home & BTTS61.3%

Home & No BTTS17.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.514.3%

Draw & BTTS8.8%

Away & Over 2.58.0%

Away & BTTS7.7%

Draw & Over 2.57.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.53.7%

Home & Under 2.52.9%

Draw & Under 2.51.7%

BTTS & Under 2.51.5%

Away & No BTTS0.9%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.593.9%

HT Over 1.576.9%

HT Home Win66.6%

HT/FT Home/Home62.4%

2nd Half More Goals51.6%

HT Both Teams Score46.8%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.523.1%

HT Draw20.1%

Equal Goals Each Half15.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.2%

HT Away Win13.3%

HT Under 0.56.1%

HT/FT Away/Home5.6%

HT/FT Away/Away4.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.5%

HT/FT Home/Away1.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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