England · Championship

Cardiff vs Watford

Kick-off 19:45 · Tue, Oct 13

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

74% confidence

Cardiff 74.1% Draw 17.8% Watford 8.1%

Over 2.5 - 61% BTTS - 48%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

83%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

1X · Home or Draw covers 91.9% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 8.1% on the only losing outcome.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Cardiff: 4 points versus 3 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

1X · Home or Draw

91.9%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

8.1%

Only the uncovered result loses

Cardiff

L W L D L L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 6:9 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.5

Watford

L L L W L L

Form 1-0-5 Goals 3:11 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 1.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

Cardiff win74.1%

Draw17.8%

Watford win8.1%

Over 1.5 goals83.2%

Over 2.5 goals60.9%

Over 3.5 goals38.6%

Both teams to score47.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

91.1%

Home Over 0.5

91.1%

Home or Draw (1X)

90.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)90.8%

Draw No Bet - Home89.1%

Home or Away (12)84.1%

Home Win75.0%

Both Halves Over 0.562.4%

Goal in Both Halves62.4%

Draw or Away (X2)24.9%

Draw15.8%

Exactly 1 Goal13.5%

Draw No Bet - Away10.9%

Away Win9.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.6%

Under 5.5 Goals90.1%

Over 1.5 Goals82.1%

Under 4.5 Goals79.0%

Under 3.5 Goals61.4%

2-4 Goals61.2%

Over 2.5 Goals60.9%

1-3 Goals57.1%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals43.6%

3-4 Goals39.9%

Under 2.5 Goals39.1%

Over 3.5 Goals38.6%

4+ Goals38.6%

1-2 Goals34.7%

Exactly 3 Goals22.3%

Exactly 2 Goals21.3%

Over 4.5 Goals21.0%

Under 1.5 Goals17.9%

Over 5.5 Goals9.9%

Under 0.5 Goals4.4%

Exactly 0 Goals4.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score91.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)53.2%

Away Team to Score51.4%

Home Clean Sheet48.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)46.8%

Home Win to Nil44.3%

Away Clean Sheet8.8%

Away Win to Nil4.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.591.1%

Home Over 1.569.7%

Away Over 0.551.4%

Away Exactly 048.5%

Home Over 2.543.7%

Home 3+ Goals43.7%

Away Exactly 135.0%

Home Exactly 226.0%

Home Exactly 121.4%

Away Over 1.516.3%

Away Exactly 212.6%

Home Exactly 08.8%

Away Over 2.53.7%

Away 3+ Goals3.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)93.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away93.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)90.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home90.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)85.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away85.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)75.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)69.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away69.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)52.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home52.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)47.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away47.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)30.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home30.5%

Home to win by 3+30.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)24.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away24.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.6%

Home to win by 122.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw21.8%

Home to win by 221.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)15.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home15.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)9.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw8.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.7%

Away to win by 16.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)6.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home6.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.9%

Away to win by 21.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.5%

Away to win by 3+0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.551.9%

Home & No BTTS44.3%

BTTS & Over 2.539.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.531.5%

Home & BTTS30.7%

Home & Under 2.523.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.521.5%

Draw & Under 2.511.8%

Draw & BTTS11.5%

BTTS & Under 2.57.5%

Away & Over 2.54.9%

Away & BTTS4.6%

Away & No BTTS4.5%

Away & Under 2.54.2%

Draw & Over 2.54.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.575.8%

HT Under 1.558.6%

HT Home Win55.4%

HT/FT Home/Home51.7%

2nd Half More Goals45.1%

HT Over 1.541.4%

HT Draw33.6%

1st Half More Goals31.6%

HT Under 0.524.2%

Equal Goals Each Half23.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home20.4%

HT Both Teams Score18.4%

HT Away Win11.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.5%

HT/FT Away/Away4.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Away/Home3.0%

HT/FT Home/Away0.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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