Portugal · Primeira Liga

Casa Pia vs Benfica

Kick-off 20:15 · Mon, Aug 17

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

71% confidence

Casa Pia 11.2% Draw 17.8% Benfica 70.9%

Over 2.5 - 53% BTTS - 51%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 5.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ AIs disagree

71%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11.9%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Benfica: 8 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.9%

Exact-score model probability

Casa Pia

L W D D W L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 4:3 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 0.5

Benfica

D D W W L W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 18:7 Scored/game 3 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

Casa Pia 1wins ·2 draws ·Benfica 2wins

Casa Pia 1-1 BenficaApr 6, 2026

Casa Pia 2-2 BenficaNov 9, 2025

Casa Pia 3-1 BenficaJan 25, 2025

Casa Pia 0-3 BenficaAug 17, 2024

Casa Pia 0-1 BenficaMar 17, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Casa Pia win11.2%

Draw17.8%

Benfica win70.9%

Over 1.5 goals76.8%

Over 2.5 goals53.4%

Over 3.5 goals31.2%

Both teams to score50.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

91.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

91.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

88.8%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)75.9%

Home or Away (12)75.0%

Draw No Bet - Away67.9%

Both Halves Over 0.552.8%

Goal in Both Halves52.8%

Away Win50.9%

Home or Draw (1X)49.1%

Draw No Bet - Home32.1%

Draw25.0%

Home Win24.1%

Exactly 1 Goal19.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals95.0%

Over 0.5 Goals92.7%

Under 4.5 Goals87.5%

Over 1.5 Goals73.6%

Under 3.5 Goals73.2%

1-3 Goals65.9%

2-4 Goals61.1%

Under 2.5 Goals51.4%

Total Goals Even50.3%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Over 2.5 Goals48.6%

2-3 Goals46.8%

1-2 Goals44.1%

3-4 Goals36.1%

Over 3.5 Goals26.8%

4+ Goals26.8%

Under 1.5 Goals26.4%

Exactly 2 Goals25.0%

Exactly 3 Goals21.8%

Over 4.5 Goals12.5%

Under 0.5 Goals7.3%

Exactly 0 Goals7.3%

Over 5.5 Goals5.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score79.8%

Home Team to Score63.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)51.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)49.0%

Away Clean Sheet36.1%

Away Win to Nil28.8%

Home Clean Sheet20.2%

Home Win to Nil12.9%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.579.8%

Home Over 0.563.9%

Away Over 1.547.5%

Home Exactly 136.8%

Home Exactly 036.1%

Away Exactly 132.3%

Home Over 1.527.1%

Away Exactly 225.8%

Away Over 2.521.7%

Away 3+ Goals21.7%

Away Exactly 020.2%

Home Exactly 218.7%

Home Over 2.58.4%

Home 3+ Goals8.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)91.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away91.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)88.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home88.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)75.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away75.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)73.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home73.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)50.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)49.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home49.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)26.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away26.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)24.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw24.1%

Away to win by 124.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw15.6%

Away to win by 215.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.3%

Home to win by 115.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)11.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away11.2%

Away to win by 3+11.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)8.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home8.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw7.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw6.3%

Home to win by 26.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.4%

Home to win by 3+2.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.539.5%

BTTS & Over 2.539.1%

Away & Over 2.529.9%

Away & No BTTS28.8%

Away & BTTS22.1%

Away & Under 2.521.0%

Draw & Under 2.519.2%

Draw & BTTS17.7%

Home & Over 2.512.9%

Home & No BTTS12.9%

BTTS & Under 2.511.9%

Home & Under 2.511.2%

Home & BTTS11.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.5%

Draw & Over 2.55.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.569.2%

HT Under 1.567.0%

2nd Half More Goals43.1%

HT Draw41.8%

HT Away Win37.4%

HT Over 1.533.0%

HT/FT Away/Away31.2%

1st Half More Goals30.9%

HT Under 0.530.8%

Equal Goals Each Half26.0%

HT Home Win20.8%

HT Both Teams Score18.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away17.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw15.4%

HT/FT Home/Home13.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home9.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Home/Away2.6%

HT/FT Away/Home1.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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