Portugal · Primeira Liga

Casa Pia vs FC Porto

Kick-off 18:00 · Sat, Sep 12

📊 Our Prediction

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

72% confidence

Casa Pia 8.9% Draw 18.9% FC Porto 72.2%

Over 2.5 - 43% BTTS - 41%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

78%

Away Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-2 at 13%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to FC Porto: 4 points versus 15 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Casa Pia 1 wins, 0 draws, FC Porto 4 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

13%

Exact-score model probability

Casa Pia

D L L L L W

Form 1-1-4 Goals 2:11 Scored/game 0.33 Conceded/game 1.83

FC Porto

L W W W W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 11:3 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 0.5

Head to head · last 5

Casa Pia 1wins ·0 draws ·FC Porto 4wins

Casa Pia 2-1 FC PortoFeb 2, 2026

Casa Pia 0-4 FC PortoAug 24, 2025

Casa Pia 0-1 FC PortoApr 12, 2025

Casa Pia 0-2 FC PortoDec 2, 2024

Casa Pia 1-2 FC PortoApr 21, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Casa Pia win8.9%

Draw18.9%

FC Porto win72.2%

Over 1.5 goals68.4%

Over 2.5 goals42.6%

Over 3.5 goals21.8%

Both teams to score40.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Away (12)

88.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

88.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home

88.4%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)94.7%

Draw No Bet - Away94.3%

Home or Away (12)88.5%

Away Win83.4%

Both Halves Over 0.566.9%

Goal in Both Halves66.9%

Home or Draw (1X)16.3%

Draw11.2%

Exactly 1 Goal11.0%

Draw No Bet - Home5.7%

Home Win5.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.5%

Under 5.5 Goals86.8%

Over 1.5 Goals85.5%

Under 4.5 Goals73.9%

Over 2.5 Goals66.6%

2-4 Goals59.4%

Under 3.5 Goals55.1%

1-3 Goals51.7%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Over 3.5 Goals44.9%

4+ Goals44.9%

2-3 Goals40.7%

3-4 Goals40.5%

Under 2.5 Goals33.4%

1-2 Goals29.9%

Over 4.5 Goals26.1%

Exactly 3 Goals21.7%

Exactly 2 Goals18.9%

Under 1.5 Goals14.5%

Over 5.5 Goals13.2%

Under 0.5 Goals3.5%

Exactly 0 Goals3.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score94.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)58.3%

Away Clean Sheet55.5%

Away Win to Nil52.3%

Home Team to Score44.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)41.7%

Home Clean Sheet5.7%

Home Win to Nil2.5%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.594.0%

Away Over 1.577.6%

Home Exactly 055.5%

Away Over 2.554.2%

Away 3+ Goals54.2%

Home Over 0.544.2%

Home Exactly 132.5%

Away Exactly 223.4%

Away Exactly 116.4%

Home Over 1.511.7%

Home Exactly 29.5%

Away Exactly 05.7%

Home Over 2.52.2%

Home 3+ Goals2.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away98.6%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)95.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)94.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away94.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)88.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home88.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)83.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)76.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home76.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)64.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away64.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)57.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home57.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)42.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away42.2%

Away to win by 3+42.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)35.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home35.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)23.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away23.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw22.0%

Away to win by 222.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.2%

Away to win by 119.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw18.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)16.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home16.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw12.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)11.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away11.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw6.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)5.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)4.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away4.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw3.9%

Home to win by 13.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home1.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw0.9%

Home to win by 20.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.2%

Home to win by 3+0.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.561.3%

Away & No BTTS52.3%

BTTS & Over 2.536.3%

Away & BTTS31.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.530.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.527.8%

Away & Under 2.522.2%

Draw & Under 2.58.5%

Draw & BTTS8.0%

BTTS & Under 2.55.3%

Draw & Over 2.52.7%

Home & Over 2.52.6%

Home & BTTS2.5%

Home & No BTTS2.5%

Home & Under 2.52.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.578.8%

HT Away Win63.4%

HT/FT Away/Away60.9%

HT Under 1.554.1%

2nd Half More Goals46.0%

HT Over 1.545.9%

1st Half More Goals31.8%

HT Draw29.1%

Equal Goals Each Half22.2%

HT Under 0.521.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away20.1%

HT Both Teams Score16.8%

HT Home Win7.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.9%

HT/FT Home/Away2.7%

HT/FT Home/Home2.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home2.1%

HT/FT Away/Home0.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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