Portugal · Primeira Liga

Casa Pia vs Moreirense

Kick-off 18:00 · Sun, Aug 30

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

38% confidence

Casa Pia 37.9% Draw 27.2% Moreirense 34.9%

Over 2.5 - 40% BTTS - 53%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

73%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.50 goals scored per match.

Head-to-head record: Casa Pia 1 wins, 1 draws, Moreirense 3 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.5%

Exact-score model probability

Casa Pia

L L L W D D

Form 1-2-3 Goals 3:11 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 1.83

Moreirense

L D D L W L

Form 1-2-3 Goals 6:14 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 2.33

Head to head · last 5

Casa Pia 1wins ·1 draws ·Moreirense 3wins

Casa Pia 1-1 MoreirenseMar 1, 2026

Casa Pia 1-2 MoreirenseSep 27, 2025

Casa Pia 2-3 MoreirenseFeb 15, 2025

Casa Pia 3-1 MoreirenseSep 14, 2024

Casa Pia 0-1 MoreirenseMay 12, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Casa Pia win37.9%

Draw27.2%

Moreirense win34.9%

Over 1.5 goals65.4%

Over 2.5 goals39.5%

Over 3.5 goals19.4%

Both teams to score53.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

89.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

89.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

88.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)75.6%

Home or Draw (1X)71.3%

Draw No Bet - Home62.1%

Both Halves Over 0.557.4%

Goal in Both Halves57.4%

Draw or Away (X2)53.1%

Home Win46.9%

Draw No Bet - Away37.9%

Away Win28.7%

Draw24.4%

Exactly 1 Goal16.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.3%

Under 5.5 Goals92.9%

Under 4.5 Goals83.8%

Over 1.5 Goals77.9%

Under 3.5 Goals67.8%

1-3 Goals62.1%

2-4 Goals61.7%

Over 2.5 Goals54.5%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

2-3 Goals45.7%

Under 2.5 Goals45.5%

1-2 Goals39.7%

3-4 Goals38.3%

Over 3.5 Goals32.2%

4+ Goals32.2%

Exactly 2 Goals23.4%

Exactly 3 Goals22.3%

Under 1.5 Goals22.1%

Over 4.5 Goals16.2%

Over 5.5 Goals7.1%

Under 0.5 Goals5.7%

Exactly 0 Goals5.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score80.5%

Away Team to Score70.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)56.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)43.1%

Home Clean Sheet29.3%

Home Win to Nil23.6%

Away Clean Sheet19.5%

Away Win to Nil13.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.580.5%

Away Over 0.570.7%

Home Over 1.548.7%

Away Exactly 136.0%

Away Over 1.534.7%

Home Exactly 131.9%

Away Exactly 029.3%

Home Exactly 226.1%

Home Over 2.522.6%

Home 3+ Goals22.6%

Away Exactly 222.1%

Home Exactly 019.5%

Away Over 2.512.6%

Away 3+ Goals12.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)89.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away89.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)88.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home88.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)75.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away75.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)71.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home71.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)53.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away53.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)46.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)28.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)24.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home24.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.4%

Home to win by 122.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.8%

Away to win by 116.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.2%

Home to win by 214.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)11.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away11.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)10.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home10.3%

Home to win by 3+10.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.0%

Away to win by 28.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.9%

Away to win by 3+3.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.545.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.534.0%

Home & Over 2.529.9%

Home & No BTTS23.6%

Home & BTTS23.3%

Draw & BTTS18.7%

Away & Over 2.517.4%

Draw & Under 2.517.2%

Home & Under 2.517.0%

Away & BTTS14.9%

Away & No BTTS13.8%

BTTS & Under 2.511.5%

Away & Under 2.511.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.1%

Draw & Over 2.57.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.572.4%

HT Under 1.563.1%

2nd Half More Goals44.1%

HT Draw40.0%

HT Over 1.536.9%

HT Home Win35.7%

1st Half More Goals31.3%

HT/FT Home/Home28.7%

HT Under 0.527.6%

Equal Goals Each Half24.7%

HT Away Win24.3%

HT Both Teams Score22.1%

HT/FT Away/Away16.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw14.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Away/Home2.8%

HT/FT Home/Away1.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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