Portugal · Primeira Liga

Casa Pia vs Santa Clara

Kick-off 15:30 · Sat, Oct 10

📊 Our Prediction

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

45% confidence

Casa Pia 24.8% Draw 30.4% Santa Clara 44.8%

Over 2.5 - 31% BTTS - 50%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

87%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-2 at 13.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Santa Clara: 4 points versus 14 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Casa Pia 1 wins, 1 draws, Santa Clara 3 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

13.8%

Exact-score model probability

Casa Pia

W L D L L L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 3:15 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 2.5

Santa Clara

D W W D W W

Form 4-2-0 Goals 9:2 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.33

Head to head · last 5

Casa Pia 1wins ·1 draws ·Santa Clara 3wins

Casa Pia 0-0 Santa ClaraApr 18, 2026

Casa Pia 0-1 Santa ClaraDec 6, 2025

Casa Pia 1-2 Santa ClaraFeb 1, 2025

Casa Pia 0-2 Santa ClaraAug 24, 2024

Casa Pia 2-1 Santa ClaraJan 29, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Casa Pia win24.8%

Draw30.4%

Santa Clara win44.8%

Over 1.5 goals57.5%

Over 2.5 goals30.6%

Over 3.5 goals13.2%

Both teams to score50.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Draw or Away (X2)

90.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)

90.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away

90.5%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)90.5%

Draw No Bet - Away88.5%

Home or Away (12)82.7%

Away Win73.2%

Both Halves Over 0.557.9%

Goal in Both Halves57.9%

Home or Draw (1X)26.8%

Draw17.3%

Exactly 1 Goal16.1%

Draw No Bet - Home11.5%

Home Win9.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.4%

Under 5.5 Goals92.7%

Under 4.5 Goals83.4%

Over 1.5 Goals78.3%

Under 3.5 Goals67.3%

2-4 Goals61.7%

1-3 Goals61.6%

Over 2.5 Goals55.1%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

2-3 Goals45.6%

Under 2.5 Goals44.9%

1-2 Goals39.3%

3-4 Goals38.5%

Over 3.5 Goals32.7%

4+ Goals32.7%

Exactly 2 Goals23.2%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Under 1.5 Goals21.7%

Over 4.5 Goals16.6%

Over 5.5 Goals7.3%

Under 0.5 Goals5.6%

Exactly 0 Goals5.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score89.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)57.0%

Away Clean Sheet51.7%

Home Team to Score48.2%

Away Win to Nil46.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)43.0%

Home Clean Sheet10.8%

Home Win to Nil5.2%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.589.2%

Away Over 1.565.2%

Home Exactly 051.7%

Home Over 0.548.2%

Away Over 2.538.5%

Away 3+ Goals38.5%

Home Exactly 134.1%

Away Exactly 226.7%

Away Exactly 124.0%

Home Over 1.514.2%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Away Exactly 010.8%

Home Over 2.52.9%

Home 3+ Goals2.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.5%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away97.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)90.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away90.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)87.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home87.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)73.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)72.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home72.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)50.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home50.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)49.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away49.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)27.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away27.2%

Away to win by 3+27.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)26.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home26.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw24.0%

Away to win by 124.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw22.0%

Away to win by 222.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw14.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)12.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away12.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)9.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw7.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw7.1%

Home to win by 17.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)4.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away4.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw3.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home2.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw1.9%

Home to win by 21.9%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.4%

Home to win by 3+0.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.547.0%

Away & No BTTS46.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.536.7%

BTTS & Over 2.534.9%

Away & BTTS27.0%

Away & Under 2.526.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.520.2%

Draw & Under 2.513.7%

Draw & BTTS11.7%

BTTS & Under 2.58.2%

Home & No BTTS5.2%

Home & Under 2.54.9%

Home & Over 2.54.6%

Home & BTTS4.3%

Draw & Over 2.53.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.572.7%

HT Under 1.562.7%

HT Away Win53.2%

HT/FT Away/Away49.5%

2nd Half More Goals44.2%

HT Over 1.537.3%

HT Draw36.0%

1st Half More Goals31.3%

HT Under 0.527.3%

Equal Goals Each Half24.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away21.1%

HT Both Teams Score16.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.0%

HT Home Win10.8%

HT/FT Home/Home5.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home3.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.1%

HT/FT Home/Away2.7%

HT/FT Away/Home0.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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