Portugal · Primeira Liga

Casa Pia vs Sporting CP

Kick-off 21:15 · Fri, Oct 30

📊 Our Prediction

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

78% confidence

Casa Pia 8.1% Draw 13.4% Sporting CP 78.4%

Over 2.5 - 63% BTTS - 43%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

83%

Away Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

78%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-4 at 12.1%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Sporting CP: 7 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.66 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-4

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

12.1%

Exact-score model probability

Casa Pia

W L W L D L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 5:7 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.17

Sporting CP

L L W W D D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 11:9 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

Casa Pia 0wins ·0 draws ·Sporting CP 5wins

Casa Pia 0-3 Sporting CPJan 16, 2026

Casa Pia 0-2 Sporting CPAug 8, 2025

Casa Pia 1-3 Sporting CPMar 9, 2025

Casa Pia 0-2 Sporting CPOct 5, 2024

Casa Pia 0-8 Sporting CPJan 29, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Casa Pia win8.1%

Draw13.4%

Sporting CP win78.4%

Over 1.5 goals83.2%

Over 2.5 goals63.3%

Over 3.5 goals41.1%

Both teams to score42.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away Win

91.8%

Over 1.5 Goals

91.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)

91.8%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Away98.5%

Draw or Away (X2)96.1%

Home or Away (12)93.3%

Away Win91.8%

Both Halves Over 0.580.2%

Goal in Both Halves80.2%

Home or Draw (1X)5.7%

Exactly 1 Goal4.7%

Draw4.3%

Draw No Bet - Home1.5%

Home Win1.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.5%

Over 1.5 Goals91.8%

Over 2.5 Goals81.0%

Under 5.5 Goals71.5%

Over 3.5 Goals64.6%

4+ Goals64.6%

Under 4.5 Goals54.3%

Total Goals Even49.0%

Total Goals Odd48.6%

2-4 Goals46.1%

Over 4.5 Goals45.7%

Under 3.5 Goals35.4%

3-4 Goals35.3%

1-3 Goals32.0%

Over 5.5 Goals28.5%

2-3 Goals27.3%

Under 2.5 Goals19.0%

Exactly 3 Goals16.5%

1-2 Goals15.5%

Exactly 2 Goals10.8%

Under 1.5 Goals8.2%

Under 0.5 Goals3.5%

Exactly 0 Goals1.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score95.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)63.4%

Away Clean Sheet60.3%

Away Win to Nil59.3%

Home Team to Score37.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)36.6%

Home Clean Sheet1.7%

Home Win to Nil0.6%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.595.9%

Away Over 1.589.1%

Away Over 2.575.1%

Away 3+ Goals75.1%

Home Exactly 060.3%

Home Over 0.537.3%

Home Exactly 129.0%

Away Exactly 214.0%

Home Over 1.58.2%

Home Exactly 27.0%

Away Exactly 16.8%

Away Exactly 01.7%

Home Over 2.51.3%

Home 3+ Goals1.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away97.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)96.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away96.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)91.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)81.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)81.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away81.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)68.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home68.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)65.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away65.9%

Away to win by 3+65.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)50.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home50.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)47.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away47.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)31.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home31.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)29.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away29.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw18.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw17.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw15.9%

Away to win by 215.9%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)15.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away15.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)15.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home15.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw13.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.0%

Away to win by 110.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)5.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home5.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw1.2%

Home to win by 11.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw0.2%

Home to win by 20.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Home to win by 3+0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.579.0%

Away & No BTTS59.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.546.4%

BTTS & Over 2.534.6%

Away & BTTS32.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.514.5%

Away & Under 2.512.9%

Draw & BTTS3.3%

Draw & Under 2.53.1%

BTTS & Under 2.52.0%

Draw & Over 2.51.2%

Home & Over 2.50.8%

Home & BTTS0.8%

Home & Under 2.50.6%

Home & No BTTS0.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.2%

HT Away Win77.9%

HT/FT Away/Away76.8%

HT Over 1.560.9%

2nd Half More Goals48.7%

HT Under 1.539.1%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

Equal Goals Each Half18.9%

HT Draw18.4%

HT Both Teams Score16.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away15.3%

HT Under 0.512.8%

HT Home Win3.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw2.5%

HT/FT Home/Away2.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw0.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw0.9%

HT/FT Home/Home0.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home0.6%

HT/FT Away/Home0.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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