UEFA Champions League

Celje vs Ararat-Armenia

Kick-off 19:15 · Tue, Aug 11

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

63% confidence

Celje 23.1% Draw 14.1% Ararat-Armenia 62.8%

Over 2.5 - 97% BTTS - 92%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 42%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The 1X2 model's strongest outcome is Ararat-Armenia win at 62.8%.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Ararat-Armenia: 2 points versus 9 across the last 3 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.80 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Celje win

23.1%

1X2 model probability

Draw

14.1%

1X2 model probability

Ararat-Armenia win

62.8%

1X2 model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

42%

Market does not fully agree

Celje

L D D

Form 0-2-1 Goals 6:7 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 2.33

Ararat-Armenia

W L W L W

Form 3-0-2 Goals 9:6 Scored/game 1.8 Conceded/game 1.2

Head to head · last 1

Celje 0wins ·0 draws ·Ararat-Armenia 1wins

Celje 1-2 Ararat-ArmeniaAug 4, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Celje win23.1%

Draw14.1%

Ararat-Armenia win62.8%

Over 1.5 goals99.4%

Over 2.5 goals96.9%

Over 3.5 goals91.4%

Both teams to score92.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

90.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

90.9%

Home Team to Score

90.8%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.593.6%

Goal in Both Halves93.6%

Home or Away (12)83.6%

Draw or Away (X2)74.4%

Draw No Bet - Away73.0%

Away Win61.0%

Home or Draw (1X)36.0%

Draw No Bet - Home27.0%

Home Win22.6%

Draw13.4%

Exactly 1 Goal0.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.9%

Over 1.5 Goals96.2%

Over 2.5 Goals93.9%

Over 3.5 Goals88.6%

4+ Goals88.6%

Over 4.5 Goals79.3%

Over 5.5 Goals66.4%

Total Goals Odd48.5%

Total Goals Even48.5%

Under 5.5 Goals33.6%

Under 4.5 Goals20.7%

2-4 Goals16.9%

3-4 Goals14.6%

Under 3.5 Goals11.4%

1-3 Goals8.3%

2-3 Goals7.6%

Under 2.5 Goals6.1%

Exactly 3 Goals5.3%

Under 1.5 Goals3.8%

Under 0.5 Goals3.1%

1-2 Goals3.0%

Exactly 2 Goals2.3%

Exactly 0 Goals0.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score95.5%

Home Team to Score90.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)89.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)10.6%

Away Clean Sheet6.2%

Away Win to Nil6.1%

Home Clean Sheet1.5%

Home Win to Nil1.4%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.595.5%

Home Over 0.590.8%

Away Over 1.589.2%

Away Over 2.576.0%

Away 3+ Goals76.0%

Home Over 1.573.9%

Home Over 2.550.4%

Home 3+ Goals50.4%

Home Exactly 223.4%

Home Exactly 117.0%

Away Exactly 213.2%

Away Exactly 16.3%

Home Exactly 06.2%

Away Exactly 01.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)94.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away94.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)92.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)90.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away90.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)87.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home87.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)84.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away84.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)78.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home78.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)74.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away74.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)66.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home66.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)61.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)51.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home51.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)45.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away45.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)36.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home36.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)30.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away30.9%

Away to win by 3+30.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)22.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)18.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away18.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.3%

Away to win by 115.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw14.8%

Away to win by 214.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)12.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home12.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw12.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw10.0%

Home to win by 110.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)9.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away9.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw8.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw6.4%

Home to win by 26.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)6.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home6.1%

Home to win by 3+6.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw5.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away4.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.588.3%

Away & Over 2.559.8%

Away & BTTS54.9%

Home & Over 2.522.0%

Home & BTTS21.2%

Draw & BTTS13.3%

Draw & Over 2.512.2%

Away & No BTTS6.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.55.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.52.0%

Home & No BTTS1.4%

Draw & Under 2.51.2%

Away & Under 2.51.2%

BTTS & Under 2.51.1%

Home & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.595.6%

HT Over 1.582.0%

HT Both Teams Score60.4%

2nd Half More Goals52.7%

HT Away Win52.5%

HT/FT Away/Away44.7%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Home Win25.0%

HT Draw22.4%

HT Under 1.518.0%

Equal Goals Each Half14.9%

HT/FT Home/Home13.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away12.4%

HT/FT Home/Away6.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home5.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.5%

HT Under 0.54.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Away/Home3.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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