Spain · La Liga

Celta Vigo vs Alaves

Kick-off 15:15 · Sun, Oct 18

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

52% confidence

Celta Vigo 51.6% Draw 26.8% Alaves 21.6%

Over 2.5 - 43% BTTS - 43%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

78%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 12.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Head-to-head record: Celta Vigo 2 wins, 1 draws, Alaves 2 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

12.9%

Exact-score model probability

Celta Vigo

D W D D D L

Form 1-4-1 Goals 7:4 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 0.67

Alaves

L D L L W W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 8:7 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

Celta Vigo 2wins ·1 draws ·Alaves 2wins

Celta Vigo 3-4 AlavesMar 22, 2026

Celta Vigo 1-0 AlavesNov 22, 2025

Celta Vigo 1-1 AlavesJan 27, 2025

Celta Vigo 2-1 AlavesAug 16, 2024

Celta Vigo 0-3 AlavesApr 27, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Celta Vigo win51.6%

Draw26.8%

Alaves win21.6%

Over 1.5 goals69.7%

Over 2.5 goals43.2%

Over 3.5 goals22.3%

Both teams to score42.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 0.5 Goals

91.2%

Under 4.5 Goals

90.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

87.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)72.7%

Home or Draw (1X)67.8%

Draw or Away (X2)59.5%

Draw No Bet - Home55.7%

Both Halves Over 0.549.1%

Goal in Both Halves49.1%

Draw No Bet - Away44.3%

Home Win40.5%

Away Win32.2%

Draw27.3%

Exactly 1 Goal21.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals96.2%

Over 0.5 Goals91.2%

Under 4.5 Goals90.0%

Under 3.5 Goals77.1%

Over 1.5 Goals69.9%

1-3 Goals68.4%

2-4 Goals59.9%

Under 2.5 Goals56.1%

Total Goals Even50.4%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

1-2 Goals47.3%

2-3 Goals47.0%

Over 2.5 Goals43.9%

3-4 Goals33.9%

Under 1.5 Goals30.1%

Exactly 2 Goals26.0%

Over 3.5 Goals22.9%

4+ Goals22.9%

Exactly 3 Goals21.1%

Over 4.5 Goals10.0%

Under 0.5 Goals8.8%

Exactly 0 Goals8.8%

Over 5.5 Goals3.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score72.9%

Away Team to Score67.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)50.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)49.3%

Home Clean Sheet32.3%

Away Clean Sheet27.1%

Home Win to Nil23.5%

Away Win to Nil18.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.572.9%

Away Over 0.567.7%

Home Over 1.537.5%

Away Exactly 136.5%

Home Exactly 135.4%

Away Exactly 032.3%

Away Over 1.531.2%

Home Exactly 027.1%

Home Exactly 223.1%

Away Exactly 220.6%

Home Over 2.514.4%

Home 3+ Goals14.4%

Away Over 2.510.6%

Away 3+ Goals10.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)93.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away93.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)87.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home87.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)81.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away81.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)67.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home67.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)59.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away59.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)40.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)32.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.2%

Home to win by 122.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.2%

Away to win by 119.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)18.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home18.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)12.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away12.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw11.9%

Home to win by 211.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.9%

Away to win by 28.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)6.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home6.5%

Home to win by 3+6.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw4.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.0%

Away to win by 3+4.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.543.1%

BTTS & Over 2.536.4%

Home & No BTTS23.5%

Draw & Under 2.521.7%

Home & Over 2.521.6%

Home & Under 2.518.9%

Draw & BTTS18.5%

Away & No BTTS18.4%

Home & BTTS17.0%

Away & Over 2.516.7%

Away & Under 2.515.5%

Away & BTTS13.8%

BTTS & Under 2.512.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.5%

Draw & Over 2.55.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.570.1%

HT Over 0.566.6%

HT Draw44.2%

2nd Half More Goals42.3%

HT Under 0.533.4%

1st Half More Goals30.6%

HT Home Win30.5%

HT Over 1.529.9%

Equal Goals Each Half27.2%

HT Away Win25.4%

HT/FT Home/Home23.7%

HT/FT Away/Away18.3%

HT Both Teams Score17.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw17.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away12.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Away/Home2.1%

HT/FT Home/Away1.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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