Spain · La Liga

Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club

Kick-off 20:30 · Sun, Aug 30

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

52% confidence

Celta Vigo 51.5% Draw 24.8% Athletic Club 23.7%

Over 2.5 - 49% BTTS - 88%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

76%

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

73%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 6.4%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Celta Vigo: 8 points versus 1 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.4%

Exact-score model probability

Celta Vigo

L D W D L W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 6:6 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1

Athletic Club

L L L D L L

Form 0-1-5 Goals 4:13 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 2.17

Head to head · last 5

Celta Vigo 2wins ·1 draws ·Athletic Club 2wins

Celta Vigo 1-1 Athletic ClubMay 17, 2026

Celta Vigo 2-0 Athletic ClubDec 14, 2025

Celta Vigo 1-2 Athletic ClubJan 19, 2025

Celta Vigo 1-3 Athletic ClubSep 22, 2024

Celta Vigo 2-1 Athletic ClubMay 15, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Celta Vigo win51.5%

Draw24.8%

Athletic Club win23.7%

Over 1.5 goals73.4%

Over 2.5 goals48.5%

Over 3.5 goals26.7%

Both teams to score87.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

90.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

90.2%

HT Over 0.5

89.4%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.583.6%

Goal in Both Halves83.6%

Home or Away (12)82.0%

Home or Draw (1X)69.7%

Draw No Bet - Home63.4%

Home Win52.0%

Draw or Away (X2)47.7%

Draw No Bet - Away36.6%

Away Win30.0%

Draw17.7%

Exactly 1 Goal3.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.0%

Over 1.5 Goals95.6%

Over 2.5 Goals87.1%

Over 3.5 Goals73.0%

4+ Goals73.0%

Under 5.5 Goals62.2%

Over 4.5 Goals55.4%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 4.5 Goals44.6%

2-4 Goals40.2%

Over 5.5 Goals37.8%

3-4 Goals31.7%

Under 3.5 Goals27.0%

1-3 Goals26.0%

2-3 Goals22.6%

Exactly 3 Goals14.1%

Under 2.5 Goals12.9%

1-2 Goals11.9%

Exactly 2 Goals8.5%

Under 1.5 Goals4.4%

Under 0.5 Goals1.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score93.7%

Away Team to Score88.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)83.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)17.0%

Home Clean Sheet11.4%

Home Win to Nil10.7%

Away Clean Sheet6.0%

Away Win to Nil5.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.593.7%

Away Over 0.588.3%

Home Over 1.576.8%

Away Over 1.563.6%

Home Over 2.553.1%

Home 3+ Goals53.1%

Away Over 2.536.8%

Away 3+ Goals36.8%

Away Exactly 226.8%

Away Exactly 124.7%

Home Exactly 223.7%

Home Exactly 116.9%

Away Exactly 011.4%

Home Exactly 06.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away95.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)92.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home92.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)90.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away90.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)83.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home83.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)80.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away80.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)69.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home69.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)65.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away65.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)52.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)47.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away47.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)34.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home34.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)30.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)19.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home19.3%

Home to win by 3+19.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.0%

Home to win by 118.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)16.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away16.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.7%

Home to win by 214.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw13.9%

Away to win by 113.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw9.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)9.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home9.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw8.7%

Away to win by 28.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)7.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away7.4%

Away to win by 3+7.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)4.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home4.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.578.8%

Home & Over 2.547.3%

Home & BTTS41.3%

Away & Over 2.526.9%

Away & BTTS24.7%

Draw & BTTS17.0%

Draw & Over 2.512.8%

Home & No BTTS10.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.58.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.3%

Away & No BTTS5.3%

Draw & Under 2.54.9%

Home & Under 2.54.6%

BTTS & Under 2.54.2%

Away & Under 2.53.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.589.4%

HT Over 1.565.6%

2nd Half More Goals49.6%

HT Both Teams Score44.8%

HT Home Win43.0%

HT Under 1.534.4%

HT/FT Home/Home34.3%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Away Win28.6%

HT Draw28.4%

HT/FT Away/Away18.3%

Equal Goals Each Half18.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.9%

HT Under 0.510.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away8.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Away/Home5.0%

HT/FT Home/Away3.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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