Spain · La Liga

Celta Vigo vs Malaga

Kick-off 13:00 · Sun, Sep 13

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

54% confidence

Celta Vigo 54.4% Draw 25.8% Malaga 19.8%

Over 2.5 - 42% BTTS - 27%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

84%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

80%

No Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

73%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 18.3%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Celta Vigo: 6 points versus 2 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 0.75 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

18.3%

Exact-score model probability

Celta Vigo

D D L L D W

Form 1-3-2 Goals 3:5 Scored/game 0.5 Conceded/game 0.83

Malaga

D L D L

Form 0-2-2 Goals 1:7 Scored/game 0.25 Conceded/game 1.75

📈 Probability Breakdown

Celta Vigo win54.4%

Draw25.8%

Malaga win19.8%

Over 1.5 goals68.1%

Over 2.5 goals41.7%

Over 3.5 goals21.1%

Both teams to score27.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

91.6%

Home Over 0.5

91.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

91.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)96.4%

Draw No Bet - Home96.1%

Home or Away (12)87.9%

Home Win84.4%

Both Halves Over 0.556.9%

Goal in Both Halves56.9%

Exactly 1 Goal16.6%

Draw or Away (X2)15.5%

Draw12.0%

Draw No Bet - Away3.9%

Away Win3.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.0%

Under 5.5 Goals93.3%

Under 4.5 Goals84.3%

Over 1.5 Goals77.4%

Under 3.5 Goals68.5%

1-3 Goals62.5%

2-4 Goals61.7%

Over 2.5 Goals53.8%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals46.2%

2-3 Goals45.9%

1-2 Goals40.2%

3-4 Goals38.1%

Over 3.5 Goals31.5%

4+ Goals31.5%

Exactly 2 Goals23.6%

Under 1.5 Goals22.6%

Exactly 3 Goals22.3%

Over 4.5 Goals15.7%

Over 5.5 Goals6.7%

Under 0.5 Goals6.0%

Exactly 0 Goals5.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score91.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)73.6%

Home Clean Sheet71.1%

Home Win to Nil65.2%

Away Team to Score28.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)26.4%

Away Clean Sheet8.2%

Away Win to Nil2.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.591.6%

Home Over 1.571.1%

Away Exactly 071.1%

Home Over 2.545.4%

Home 3+ Goals45.4%

Away Over 0.528.8%

Home Exactly 225.7%

Away Exactly 124.2%

Home Exactly 120.6%

Home Exactly 08.2%

Away Over 1.54.6%

Away Exactly 24.1%

Away Over 2.50.5%

Away 3+ Goals0.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home99.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)96.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home96.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)91.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away91.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)84.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)80.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away80.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)62.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home62.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)61.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away61.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)38.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home38.6%

Home to win by 3+38.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)37.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away37.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw24.0%

Home to win by 224.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.8%

Home to win by 121.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)19.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home19.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw18.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)15.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away15.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw11.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)8.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home8.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw5.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)3.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw3.0%

Away to win by 13.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.4%

Away to win by 20.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.1%

Away to win by 3+0.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & No BTTS65.2%

Home & Over 2.551.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.541.1%

Home & Under 2.532.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.532.4%

BTTS & Over 2.521.4%

Home & BTTS19.2%

Draw & Under 2.510.8%

Draw & BTTS6.1%

BTTS & Under 2.55.0%

Away & No BTTS2.4%

Away & Under 2.52.3%

Draw & Over 2.51.2%

Away & Over 2.51.1%

Away & BTTS1.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.572.1%

HT Under 1.563.5%

HT Home Win62.1%

HT/FT Home/Home60.3%

2nd Half More Goals44.0%

HT Over 1.536.5%

HT Draw32.9%

1st Half More Goals31.2%

HT Under 0.527.9%

Equal Goals Each Half24.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home22.5%

HT Both Teams Score9.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.8%

HT Away Win5.0%

HT/FT Away/Away1.7%

HT/FT Away/Home1.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.6%

HT/FT Home/Away0.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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